| Obiective :To understand epidemiological characteristics of mumps and its outbreak situation from 2006 to 2015,and to reveal the rule of occurrence and development of mumps in changsha by using the infectious disease dynamics model(SEIAR model)so as to uncover the trend of the mumps outbreak and predict the number of patients over the next year,and to provide a scientific basis for the departments of health and family planning and prevention and control to establish the early warning mechanism and make prevention and control tactics strategies and measures of mumps.Methods :Related epidemic data of mumps from January 1,2006 to December 31,2015 in changsha was collected from the China information system for disease surveillance and the information system of public health emergency reporting,and epidemiologically analyized by using excel 2010 and SPSS 19.0 statistical software.Through the software experimental platform of the Berkeley Madonna,taking the former collected systematic data of mumps from January 1,2006 to December 31,2015 in Changsha as a model database,a SEIAR infectious disease model was established to analylze spread regularity of mumps in the population of all ages in Changsha based on the theoretical analysis of dynamics model.Results :(1)28895 cases of mumps were reported in Changsha city from 2006 to 2015,the annual average incidence was 43.73 per 100,000,and no death cases were reported.(2)The peak of reported cases was occurred from April to July each year,accounting for 45.20% of the total number of report cases,of which the most in May and June,accounting for 27.07%;and the second peak appeared from November to December and January in the following year,accounted for 25.59% of the total number of report cases.(3)The age distribution was given priority to 3 ~ 15 years old children,accounting for 81.96% of the total number of cases.Male/Female incidence ratio was 1.58:1,the average annual incidence rate was 32.46 and 20.53 per 100,000,respectively.(4)Ther professional distribution is given priority to students,the nursery children and scattered children,accounting for 88.02% of the total number of report cases.(5)In 2006 ~ 2015,mumps outbreaks were were reported in nine districts or counties in changsha city,36 outbreak were reported with 967 cases,the average rate was 2.22%.the maximum number of cases in 10 outbreak events was reported in Yuelu district,accounting for 27.78% of the total number of the report cases,followed by 6 outbreak events in Ningxiang county,accounting for 16.67% of the report cases,there was only 1 outbreak event happened in Kaifu district;Outbreak time of all the evevts mainly concentrated in the duration between March and June,and from October to December,most of breakout events occurred at school.(6)By using a SEIAR model to analyze the occurrence dynamics and development of mumps epidemic conditions,the results showed that age group of 3 ~ 5 years old and 6 ~ 14 years old were the key groups to disseminate mumps virus in mumps epidemics,otherwise,it was predicted that the incidence peak of mumps in Changsha would occur in seasons of winter and spring in the future year.Conclusion :(1)The overall incidence of mumps has been rising in Changsha,with the incidence rate fluctuating between 13.74 per100,000 and 70.83 per 100,000.The situation is not optimistic.(2)The age of 3~14 is the most powerful age for spreading mumps virus in Changsha,mumps is obviously seasonal,from march to June,October to December,that is to say,the winter and spring are the peak period of the disease.(3)The outbreak of mumps has been reported in 9 districts(counties)in Changsha,and all outbreak is in schools.(4)SEIAR model is good to fitting and forecasting incidence of mumps,and it also can reveal transmissibility characteristics of each age group during the development of mumps,However,it should be pay attention to other comprehensive factors which may affect the results in practice. |
PDF Full Text Request