Epidemic Analysis And ARIMA Model Predict Of Mumps In Jiangnan District Of Nanning City From 2008 To 2018

Objective The study aims to describe the epidemiological characteristics of mumps in Jiangnan District of Nanning City from 2008 to 2018,and to analyze its incidence trend.By establishing ARIMA prediction model of mumps,the monthly incidence of mumps was predicted,so as to provide the scientific basis for formulating the prevention and control strategy of mumps in advance.Methods 1.The epidemic data of mumps in Jiangnan District of Nanning City from January 1,2008 to December 31,2018 were collected and sorted through the China disease prevention and control information system.The epidemic situation of mumps in jiangnan district was described and analyzed through indexes such as incidence rate and composition ratio and then data processing and statistical analysis was carried out by using Excel 2010 and SPSS 20.0 statistical software.2.The monthly incidence of Mumps from 2008 to 2017 was to used to establish the ARIMA prediction model by SPSS20.0 statistical software.Then the morbidity of mumps in Jiangnan District of Nanning City in 2018 was predicted according to the optimal model.The actual monthly incidence of mumps in 2018 was compared with the predicted results of the model.Finally,the fitted model was used to predict the morbidity of mumps in 2019.Result 1.There were 2595 reported cases of mumps in Jiangnan District of Nanning City from 2008 to 2018.The cases were mainly sporadic and there were no deaths.The average annual incidence rate of mumps was 49.44/100,000,among which,the incidence rate of mumps showed a sharp upward trend from2008 to 2011.In 2011,the incidence rate reached its peak of 118.32/100,000.Thereafter,the incidence rate of mumps has declined sharply,and in 2017,the incidence rate has dropped to the lowest level at 19.65/100,000.The incidence of mumps has been observed in every month of the year,and had obvious seasonal distribution characteristics,mainly concentrated from April to July,showing periodic fluctuation with a high incidence in June.There were 8 streets and townships,each of which having case reports.The cumulative number of reported cases in urban areas and townships accounted for respectively 82.66%and 17.34%of the total number of reported cases.The sex ratio of male to female cases was 1.6:1.The cases were mainly concentrated in primary and secondary school students and preschool children,and the incidence of the disease was mainly among the population aged 1-15 years old,accounting for83.55%of the total number of reported cases.2.ARIMA?0,1,1??0,1,1?₁₂2 was the best model obtained by fitting the original sequence,and its goodness of fit index was R²=0.436,BIC=1.984,which showed that the model had the best fitting effect.The ARIMA?0,1,1??0,1,1?₁₂2 model was applied to predict the incidence in 2018.By comparing the predicted value with the real value in 2018,the results showed that the predicted incidence and the actual incidence in each month were within the 95%confidence interval,and the average absolute percentage error was 31.24%.All these showed that the predicted effect of the model was good.Finally,using the model to predict the incidence in 2019,the results showed that in 2019,the overall incidence had a slight upward trend,but it was still at a lower level.Conclusion 1.There were 2595 reported cases of mumps in Jiangnan District of Nanning City from 2008 to 2018.The average annual incidence of mumps was 49.44/100,000,and the incidence rate of mumps was a relatively high level.The incidence of mumps had obvious seasonal periodic characteristics,which mainly concentrated from April to July each year and showed periodic fluctuation with a high incidence in June.The incidence of mumps was mainly among adolescents and children who were aged 1 to 14years.The sex ratio of male to female was 1.6:1.Adolescents and children were still the the key high-risk groups.2.ARIMA?0,1,1??0,1,1?₁₂2 was the best model obtained by fitting the original sequence.The fitting parameters of model were all statistically significant and the prediction effect of ARIMA?0,1,1??0,1,1?₁₂2 was well.It can be used to predict the incidence trend of mumps in Jiangnan District of Nanning city.