Research On The Value For Money Assesment Of Medical PPP Projects Under Uncertainties

Recently,PPP(Public-Private-Partnership)mode has widely used in the operation and construction of infrastructure projects,it's considered to be innovation modes that can improve the performance of the public sector.In fact,PPP mode is not more efficient than the traditional public sector procurement mode.Whether using PPP mode to provide infrastructure projects depends on the intrinsic value of projects.There is lacked of scientific evaluation mechanism and method in the preliminary decision of China' s PPP projects,and there is lacked of VFM evaluation system in PPP projects.In this situation,it's necessary to discuss if PPP projects are value for money.This dissertation speaks out around the core issue weather medical PPP projects are value for money under uncertainty condition,including six chapters.This first chapter described the background the question,key issue to be solved,research contend and technology roadmap;the second chapter was the PPP moda and VFM appraisal throry's literature review;the third chapter was recognized and analyzed uncertainties of medical PPP projects;the forth chapter build VFM assessment model under uncertainties condition and its solution process;the fifth chapter verified adaptability and availability of the VFM assessment model with a medical case;the sixth chapter consisted of the conclusion,limitations and future research prospects.The main achievements are as follow:Firstly,this dissertation defined and identified the concept of "uncertainty" in PPP project.This dissertation compared the definition and classification of"uncertainty" in the property and economics theory comprehensively,combined with the specific context of medical PPP projects,defined the uncertainty in the PPP projects VFM research as "within PPP project life cycle,investors can't completely avoid or control the factors that cause economics losses to the projects.And then,from the perspective of easily building model and discussing issue,this dissertation studied two properties of uncertainty:one is randomness.There is information to predict and calculate the probability of the occurrence in the project evaluation process;the other is fuzziness.It means those uncertainties can only described by language and judged by people.Scendly,this dissertation built VFM assessment model of medical PPP projects under uncertainties.Firstly,this dissertation analysed uncertain events that may have caused economic losses of medical PPP project by consulting literatures and case study,and included 10 uncertainties.Under the condition of uncertainty,this dissertation took full account of characteristics of Chinese medical PPP projects,and then analysed full life cycle costs,medical tax policy.Secondly,this dissertation referenced relatively mature VFM assessment model in abroad,and then built VFM assessment model of Chinese medical PPP projects.This VFM assessment model can be appled to medical PPP project decision making in earlier stage.It can enrich and develop policy research in relation to the project decision in earlier stage.Finally,this dissertation designed the solving process.To improve the reliability of the results,this dissertation designed the solving process that can handle both random and fuzzy uncertaionties..In the solving model,sample sets are produced from probabilistic distribution.After assigning the random variables of the model,the model will contain only fuzzy variables.This dissertation will perform fuzzy arithmetic to calculate the output in the form of a fuzzy set.The final output is represented as fuzzy sets with random variation that can be modeled with a fuzzy random variable.Using Monte Carlo simulation can make decisions.This solving process not only can handle both random and fuzzy uncertainties in VFM assessment model,but also can handle both random and fuzzy uncertainties in a risk assessment model.