Study On Formation Mechanism And Forecast Methods About Highway Traffic Volume

It has an important political and economic significance for the establishment of the Highway, which accelerates the construction of the national economy and promotes its development. Traffic Forecast is the key factor of making strategic decisions of Highway projects. It is the premise of traffic condition evaluation and the foundation of the necessity and feasibility of analysing construction projects. It is also the major foundation of determining the technical degree, engineering scale, economic evaluation of the Highway construction projects. The level and quality of the Traffic Forecast influence the scientificalness and the rationality of the project decision firsthand.Basing on the historical material and the investigation on the spot, this paper analysed the relationship of the traffic change and its influence factors, reserched the affection of the Highway construction project to the whole traffic. According to the formation mechanism and the variational discipline, it established the Combination model of the Traffic and developed an effective and applied combination forecast method that was based upon the gray theory and the regression analysis founding on four stages forecast of Singular-model method.Finally, it took Henan regional for example. Considering the regional economies development, the natural and social environment of Henan province, this paper empirically reserched the Singular-model and Combination model as well as their arithmetic, probed the model choice and the parameter analysis. The Combination model made an obvious better result than the Singular-model. We chose the appropriate combination model and parameter evaluation method to determine the best model parameter, which can promote the forecast precision effectively. The weighted average combination model can obtain the best combination model form to promote the forecast precision.