The Research On Statistical Identification Of Critical Infrastructure Chain Failure Paths And Its Management Countermeasures

The critical infrastructures are the large technology systems which guarantee the normaloperation of city “ life ” and maintain the modern urban and regional economic function.They're mainly the water supply and water treatment,electric power,communications,transportation,natural gas and oil,government services,banking and business,emergency service system,etc.Critical infrastructure is very important,it is also very fragile.Once failure happens,it is easy to cause a chain reaction—cross-border crisis(across functional boundaries,geographical boundaries and the administrative boundaries)which will cause serious social and economic consequences.Therefore,when coping with critical infrastructure chain failure events,the city disaster prevention and reduction and cross-border crisis management,how to effectively identify critical infrastructure chain failure paths and block ahead of time,to prevent the risk of failure to expand upgrade,has become an important problem to be solved about current urban disaster reduction and crisis management.Different from the widely used "hypothesis-deductive" research approach,in this paper,by means of literature research,case study and experience summary,statistical identification,and other research methods it proposes a analysis framework based on empirical generalizations to identify and analyze the interdependent relationships between the critical infrastructure chain failure problem.Collecting and building up the chain failure case base,making the construction of critical infrastructure chain failure node statistics index and the design of the method to identify critical infrastructure chain paths are this research ' s emphasis.It also deeply discusses the critical infrastructure and its sub-network chain failure paths on the domestic and abroad respectively.First of all,it sets up the critical infrastructure chain failure case database,collecting 229 failure events of the critical infrastructure in recent years.The region is throughout the domestic and international.The number of domestic events is 156,and the number of abroad events is 73.The above is the data source of this paper.Then,it extracts the logical relationship of the critical infrastructure chain failure and builds the statistical indicators of the critical infrastructure chain failure,including the attribute dimensions,the relationship dimensions and topological dimension respectively(such as trigger failure frequency,affected failure frequency,impact ratio,failure grades,specific failure combination + frequency,etc.)to make statistics,identification and analysis ofdata.Eventually it will form the quantitative evaluation and cognition of the vulnerability between the interdependent critical infrastructure network.Finally,it designs the identification method and probability statistics method of the critical infrastructure chain failure paths,and applied them to this paper case base.And it verifies the correctness and practicability of this method by the case analysis.Using this method to identify the deadly and serious infrastructure failure paths,thus under the condition of cost limitation and other issues,it can improve the related department efficiency of screening job only through the analysis of the past experience.Above work can guide in management and support on decision-making to infrastructure failure emergency management and cross-border crisis management.