Analysis For Civil Aviation Safety Based On Risk Transmission

Safety has always been an important issue in the operation and management process of the civil aviation. Through the in-depth analysis of the safety issues of the civil aviation, we can know that the risk factors are not independent, and risk transmission which may lead to change of the system state is subsistent. In order to improve the accuracy of the analysis for the civil aviation safety, referring to a large number of domestic and international papers, civil aviation regulations and accident reports, and the analysis for civil aviation safety based on risk transmission is carried out.Risk factors and risk types in maintenance system are analyzed and classified. Then a causal relationship model is established among risk factors and among different risks based on ISM-DEMATEL method. Direct influences, indirect influences, centrality degree and reason degree of the risk indicators are calculated to find out the main risk factors of the maintenance system. The results show that the deep reasons that affect the safety of civil aviation are equipment and environmental factors, and the direct reasons are the human factors and management. Deep Learning is used to predictive the safety of maintenance system. And the prediction results show that the Deep Learning algorithm is feasible, and the prediction accuracy is high. Then the risk assessment of maintenance system based on risk transmission is carried out. According to the evaluation results, the risk degree considering risk transmission is higher than the risk degree without considering risk transmission. Setting the threshold of risk degree and the early-warning can be carried out effectively.Considering the relationship among the risk factors in the system, using the method of system dynamics to establish simulation model of analysis for civil aviation maintenance system safety considering risk transmission. Set the parameters and numerical value to simulate in VENSIM DSS software. According to the simulation result, the average safety degree of the system considering risk transmission is higher than the average safety degree without considering risk transmission, which can provide the basis for strengthening the civil aviation safety management.At last, this paper comes up with the idea of strengthening the civil aviation safety management by controlling the risk transmission to improve the safety level of civil aviation.