Research On Flight Delay-Based Civil Aviation Safety Risk Management

In the sustained rapid development of civil aviation process, flight delays are an inevitablephenomenon, not only does it affect the service quality and economic efficiency of the air, but itseriously threatens the safety of civil aviation, It has highly aroused public attention. Research onflight delay-based civil aviation safety risk management is to conbine organically flight delays andcivil aviation safety, which are two interrelated principal contradiction to trouble the healthydevelopment of civil aviation industry, use relevant risk management techniques, identiry civilaviation safety risk factors flight delays induced to build a safety management index system, and onthis basis, a comprehensive evaluation has been launched.The overview of fight delays related knowledge, risk management theory and risk analysismethods lays the theoretical foundation for further study. Explore the causal relationship of flightdelay and civil aviation safety risk and its impact on civil aviation security subsystem, and thenanalyze the machanism that flight delay induces civil aviation safety risk, which provides thefeasibility the both are in a theoretical framework. Based on the mechanism of civil aviation riskscaused by flight delays and four factors including personnel, equipments, environment andmanagement, the thesis, taking the airport subsystems for example, sifts to obtain civil aviation safetyrisk indicators when flight delays happen, and also constructs related safe risks indicators system. BPartificial neural network evaluation the single index security risk. Since many indicators cannot bequantized, so the thesis adopts fuzzy AHP to decribe, analyze and handle the fuzzy phenomenon, andevaluate comprehensively ‘human factors’.Considering the casual relationship among civil aviation risks induced by flight delays andBayesian methods’s advantages of expressing and infering the uncertainty and handling complexcausality, the thesis builds the airport subsystems civil aviation risks model based on bayesiannetwork, which can be used to collect expert knowledge and experience, and calculate the probabilityof safety risks, in order to make the estimation more objective, scientific and reasonable.The thesis researches on the basis of airport subsystems, which the related research achivementsand methods can be applied into ATC, flight and maintainance subsystems. And this will supplyoperational suggestions and methods for civil aviation management based on flight delay, it’sbeneficial for relevant department of civil aviation to enhance their ability and consciousness to riskmanagement，and reduce or avoid the security risks and losses caused by flight delays, therebyenhancing integrally the civil aviation safety standards.