Research On The Method Of Risk Prediction For Aircraft Conflict In Terminal Area

The low altitude airspace reform has entered a deepening stage at present.Make full use of low altitude airspace resources,achieve the delicacy management of low altitude airspace is the goal of this stage.In order to guarantee safety and reduce the flight conflict,and make the best use of valuable resource of low altitude airspace,it is necessary to predict the flight conflict risk between general transportation around the airport and transport aircraft in the future.On top of this,determine the level and vertical range of low altitude airspace around transport airports to meet the requirements of delicacy management.According to the actual flight procedure,raw aircraft performance data,basic aircraft data,atmosphere data,standard filght crew operating procedure and position error data,using the geometric relations in the space coordinates,dynamic look-up table interpolation algorithm,real-time iterative algorithm,full energy push force model,geometric decomposition of the aircraft motion parameters and two-dimensional normal distribution error,a transport aircraft trajectory model in terminal area is established.According to the basic aircraft data and the pilot's driving characteristics of general aircraft,using the geometric relations in the space coordinates,general aircraft range constraint algorithm,geometric decomposition of the aircraft motion parameters and fan-shaped region uniform distribution point generating algorithm,a free flight trajectory model in the activity area of general aircraft is established.The above mentioned transport aircraft trajectory model,general aircraft trajectory model and flight conflict identification method are integrated into a terminal area aircraft conflict model.According to the model,the simulation program is compiled using C language,the aircraft trajectory within 20 km range of the terminal area centered on the runway is simulated by computer and the model is verified.Predict flight conflict risk with different traffic zone settings,and finally the activity area of general aircrafts near the terminal area is determined by the computer simulation.In this range,the flight conflict risk between the free flight general aircraft and the transport aircraft meets the acceptable level of safety.The study in theory provide reference of the accurate method of calculating aircraft trajectory and predicting flight conflict risk in terminal area.In reality,the study supportthe determination of general aircraft activity area around the urban transportation airport.In reality,the study support the determination of general aircraft activity area around the urban transportation airport.The study also aid in the refinement of low altitude airspace resource utilization and improving economic efficiency in the premises of safety.