The Research Of Prediction Method For Aircraft Collision Risk After Low Altitude Open

With the development of the general aviation after low altitude airspace reform, the quantity of general aircraft in our country's terminal area will increasing very fast. This will lead to conflict even collision between general aircraft and transport aircraft. In order to ensure the safety of the terminal area, the prediction of the collision risk between general aircraft and transport aircraft is researched.Based on collecting and analyzing the research about collision risk at home and abroad, and combining the operating characteristics in airport terminal area, the collision risk prediction model between general aircraft and transport aircraft is built. By improving the Reich model and Event model, and analyzing the main factors influencing collision risk which involves pilots, controllers, air traffic control machines, weather and management, the model(AHMEMCR) which involves five factors for predicting collision risk between general aircraft and transport aircraft is established.In the AHMEMCR model, the aircraft collision rate under the influence of airspace is researched based on the relative velocity vector and random distribution; The pilots and controllers' effect on collision risk is evaluated by Human Reliability Analysis methods including CARA and CREAM; The air traffic control machine such as STCA and TCAS's effect on collision risk is analyzed based on the insisted data; And the influence of weather and management is analyzed qualitively; By the Hybrid System Reliability method, the five factors are combined and the collision risk model is built.One terminal area's collision risk is predicted through MATLB, and the improving measures is proposed. This provides theoretical basis for the reform and regulatory of our country's low altitude airspace. It also provides a thought for calculating the collision risk in terminal area after low altitude airspace reform.