Comprehensive Carrying Capacity Assessment And Sustainable Utilization Of Coastal Area

Coastal zone have advantages of resources and location, it is the fastest growing region of urbanization, also driving the development of economy. But with the rapid development of coastal urbanization, water environment and ecological environment is deteriorating, shortage of fresh water resources is increasing, per capita land area is declining, which lead to comprehensive carrying capacity of coastal regions seriously overloaded. To achieve sustainable development in the coastal zone, coastal development activities must be controlled within an acceptable range, therefore, an study of comprehensive carrying capacity of coastal area is needed to ensure sustainable development of the coastal zone.This paper mainly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41371517)and the Shandong Province Science and Technology Program(2013GSF11706). For Dongying City coastal zone, modeled a comprehensive carrying capacity evaluation index system of coastal area based on P-S-R Model through shallow sea water quality monitoring data,coastal wetlands and remote sensing of interpretation data, the socio-economic statistical data in Dongying City and so on. Meanwhile choose the status space method to assess the comprehensive carrying capacity of coastal areas and environment subsystem, resource subsystem, economic subsystem, ecological subsystem, and social subsystem of coastal area according to the theory of social- economic- natural complex ecosystem.In order to understand differences of the comprehensive bearing capacity between Dongying City Coastal zone and adjacent areas, the paper also compared comprehensive carrying capacity of Dongying City Coastal region with Weifang and Binzhou, to discuss the sustainable ways of Dongying City.In order to understand the future development trend of Dongying City coastal area comprehensive carrying capacity, the paper using the linear regression analysis, gray prediction and the empirical formula of three methods to predict the Trend of comprehensive carrying capacity of Dongying City Coastal Zone 2016—2020.The results show that: The comprehensive carrying capacity of Dongying City coastal area from 2010 to 2014 are overloaded, but the trend is gradually to sustainable tend. While as for each subsystem, environment subsystem of Dongying City coastal area is overloaded in 2011 and full loaded in 2014, resource subsystem of Dongying City coastal area is overloaded in 2014 and tend to full loaded in 2013, economy subsystem of Dongying City coastal area is overloaded in 2010 and tend to full loaded in 2014, ecological subsystem of Dongying City coastal area is overloaded in 2014 and tend to full loaded in 2010, social subsystem of Dongying City coastal area is overloaded in 2011 and tend to full loaded in 2010,other subsystems are overloaded in the left years. As for Each county of Dongying City coastal area of comprehensive carrying capacity are quite different, and all overloaded in 2014. The comprehensive carrying capacity of Guangrao County coastal region was significantly overloaded, followed Kenli County, Dongying County and Lijin County, and the smallest overload is in Hekou County. Dongying City has obvious advantages of resources, environment, ecology by comparing its Coastal regions comprehensive carrying capacity with Weifang and Binzhou City, but its social supports are slightly less in 2013.And draw a conclusion that Dongying City coastal area of comprehensive carrying capacity is gradually tending towards sustainable by predicting from 2016 to 2020.Finally, put forward some suggestions and countermeasures for Dongying City coastal area of sustainable utilization, mainly about enlarging its advantages and narrowing its deficiencies appropriately, such as maintaining the ecological, environmental advantages, developing the specialized eco-tourism, enhancing port advantages, reducing the rate of economic development appropriately, increasing social support and social investment in public services and so on.For the county district of Dongying City, Guangrao County, Dongying County, Lijin County need to strengthen environmental management and ecological protection, while Guangrao County also need to strengthen social support investment, Kenli County and Hekou Country need to maintain the ecological advantages and develop tourism appropriately.