Evaluation And Prediction Of The Comprehensive Carrying Capacity Of The Coastal Zone In The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

Coastal zone has unique landform,rich natural resources and superior regional conditions,and is often a highly densely populated area with population and cities.With the rapid development of urbanization and industrialization in the coastal zone,the contradiction between human and land is becoming more and more acute,and it is faced with the problems of ecological environment deterioration and resource shortage.The development of the coastal zone beyond the natural carrying capacity will directly affect the balance of the regional manearth system and may lead to serious environmental disasters.Therefore,the scientific evaluation of the comprehensive carrying capacity level of the coastal zone is of great significance to realize the rational development and utilization of the coastal zone and maintain the sustainable development of the coastal resources and environment.Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is one of the most open and economically dynamic regions in China,and plays an important strategic role in the overall development of the country.In order to explore the comprehensive carrying status of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area coastal zone,this paper evaluates the comprehensive carrying capacity of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area coastal zone and the carrying capacity of four subsystems from 2014 to 2018 by using the State-space method,and on this basis predicts the comprehensive carrying capacity from 2019 to2021 by using the grey prediction model.Finally,suggestions and countermeasures are put forward to improve the comprehensive carrying capacity of the coastal zone,in order to provide a scientific basis for the development layout of the coastal zone of Guangdong-Hong KongMacao Greater Bay Area and the protection of resources and environment.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Constructing the comprehensive carrying capacity index system of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Coastal Zone,and using the state space method to evaluate the comprehensive carrying capacity.The results show that from 2014 to 2018,the comprehensive carrying capacity of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area coastal zone shows a state of gradual improvement,with a total increase of 0.1786.In 2018,the comprehensive carrying capacity of Guangzhou was the highest(1.3023),and the worst was that of Jiangmen(0.8307)in 2014.The change rate of the comprehensive carrying capacity in all regions was positive from 2014 to 2018,and the change rate of the comprehensive carrying capacity in Guangzhou was the largest,which increased by 8.87% in the five years.From the perspective of different development stages,the comprehensive carrying capacity of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area coastal zone changed gently from 2014 to 2015,and was generally at a low level.From 2016 to 2018,the comprehensive carrying capacity of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area coastal zone has been improved rapidly.During the study period,the gap within Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area gradually increased,and the comprehensive carrying capacity in the west showed a trend of gradual increase,while the comprehensive carrying capacity in the east showed a trend of decline.(2)The paper analyzes the carrying status and change causes of the four subsystems of the comprehensive carrying capacity evaluation of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area coastal zone,including resource support,environmental guarantee,economic development and regional response.The results show that,from 2014 to 2018,the carrying capacity of resource support subsystem is stable and at a medium level.The carrying capacity of the environmental support subsystem was generally lower,with great internal differences and drastic changes,which were related to the frequent storm surges and red tides in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area during the research period.The carrying capacity of the subsystem of economic development is generally on the rise,which is related to the tertiary industry becoming the main driving force of economic growth in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,the increase of foreign investment and the rapid development of tourism.The carrying capacity of regional response subsystems is generally on the rise,which is related to the increase of investment in environmental improvement,road network construction,water conservancy,environment and public facilities.Through the quantitative analysis of the contribution of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area comprehensive carrying capacity,it is found that the economic development subsystem contributes the most,while the resource support subsystem contributes the least.The relatively large contribution indexes are the length of the coastline,the artificial index of the coastline,the cargo throughput of the port,the number of scientific and technological research and development people and the per capita green area of the park.(3)The grey prediction model is used to forecast the comprehensive carrying capacity of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area coastal zone.It is found that the spatial difference of the comprehensive carrying capacity of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area coastal zone is gradually increasing from 2019 to 2021,and Guangzhou and Macao Special Administrative Region maintain a high level,while Zhuhai and Dongguan have a relatively low level.According to the prediction results of the subsystem carrying capacity,except for Shenzhen,the carrying capacity of the coastal zone resource supporting subsystem showed a great increase,while the change was gentle in other regions.The overall level of the coastal zone resource supporting subsystem in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area was not high.The carrying capacity of the coastal environmental support subsystem increased significantly except Guangzhou,but the improvement was limited in other regions,and even showed a downward trend in some regions.The carrying capacity of the subsystems of coastal economic development and regional response is relatively balanced,and the overall level is high,and the development trend is good.(4)Suggestions on measures to improve the comprehensive carrying capacity of the coastal zone in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area are given.According to the evaluation and prediction results of the comprehensive carrying capacity of the coastal zone in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,the regions with low comprehensive carrying capacity need to reduce environmental pressure while realizing economic development.The regions with strong resource supporting capacity but average economic development level should make full use of the advantages of resources and environment to explore the growth points supporting their economic development.Regions with better comprehensive carrying capacity should play a leading role in driving the transformation of regional industrial structure and driving innovation.Secondly,it is necessary to ensure the preservation rate of natural coastline,optimize the development,utilization and protection of coastal zones,and establish and improve the dynamic monitoring mechanism of coastline.Finally,it is necessary to establish a trans-regional control system,strengthen the exchange and cooperation of environmental protection and social and economic development in different cities,break down the policy barriers,and achieve coordinated regional development.