The Optimal Economic Growth Under The Restriction Of Energy

Both economic growth and sustainable development of the ecosystem, are not only the only option for future development of China’s economy, but also the most important values of manager. Chinese economy’s dependence on coal will almost certainly gone up, the amount of coal to 2020 will increase by nearly 40%.With the advancement of industrialization and urbanization, China’s energy demand showed a sharp rising trend, increasing the gap between supply and demand, the energy consumption caused by environmental problems also is not optimistic,China is facing the dual pressures of the environmental crisis and energy crisis.Under the new normal background, the coordinated development of energy and economy will be the subject of future economic development. Therefore, in the form of this background,the study of the effect of energy constraint on China’s economic development,seeking the balance of economic growth and energy sustainability has important significance.Paper comprehensive a variety of theories and analysis methods,sustainable development,recycling economics,energy economics and statistics, etc.On the basic of digesting the domestic and overseas works about energy economics and literature,the physics of coupling coordination degree model is applied to the energy economy system,analyzing the coupling coordination degree of the energy and economy.Secondly, using the optimization theory, analyzing the endogenous growth mechanism on energy constraints, and to explore the impact of production factors on economic growth.Then,in view of the goal about "co2emissions intensity in 2020 is reduced to 40%-45%in 2005", which was converted to energy intensity targets, estimating economic growth in 2015-2020 under the constraint of the energy intensity.Finally, based on the perspective of industrial structure adjustment, using system GMM method to empirical study the direction of the industrial structure adjustment under the energy constraints And based on the reality of China’s current and draw lessons from advanced foreign experience,put forward feasible suggestions for achieving sustainable development of energy and economy.The main conclusions are as follows:Firstly, the coupling research of energy consumption and economic growth.this chapter calculates the coupling coordination degree of the energy consumption and economic growth in China in 1995-2014, the following conclusions:(1)From the perspective of the synthetic utility index of each system, the comprehensive index of energy system and economic system are higher, respectively rose to 0.63,0.66 from 0.23,0.30, almost consistent growth.But, on the whole, the energy system and economic system did not achieve a theoretical equivalent, respectively, through the development of the energy system lags behind the economic system to the development of the energy system ahead of the economic system,to the development energy systems lag behind the development of the economic system. Fromthe overall trend, energy system is lagging behind the development of economic system.(2)From the point of coupling coordination degree, the coupling coordination values are between 0.31 to 0.61, is on the verge of disturbance or coordination.Which means that the economic development in our country is basic belong to extensive pattern, which has negative influence on the energy systems and energy systems will also have bad effect to economic development.Secondly, the research of endogenous economic growth under the restriction of energy.Based on endogenous economic growth model, using the optimization theory, building a optimal economic growth model, which include technological,labor and energy constraints.Interpreting the inner mechanism of technology progress,labor growth,energy consumption and economic development through theoretical analysis.And analyzing the effect of technology progress,labor and energy constraint to the endogenous economic by FGLS and quantity regression.The results are as follow:(1)Engine of economic growth from the technology progress,labor input and energy consumption.It will be alleviating the negative impact of energy conservation to economy development in a certain extent by enlarging the stock of existing technology,labor input and improving the efficiency of human capital.(2)R&D capital stock and human capital efficiency have significant positive effect on economic growth, but there are also regional differences; Labor input is the main power of economic growth; The role of energy consumption to economic growth should not be ignored,as technology advances, the increase of labor input, the status of energy consumption in the economic activities also weakens.(3)The role of R&D capital stock and human capital efficiency are mainly reflected in the level of economic development in the medium and higher stage, energy consumption for middle-income stage of economic growth have significant effect, with to the high income levels across the economy, the effect will be weakened.Thirdly, the optimal economic growth under the restriction of energy is calculated.The results of the research on endogenous economic growth mechanism under the restriction of energy show that capital stock、labor、the efficiency of human capital、science progress will be replacing energy consumption in a certain extent. Based on this, this chapter construct the optimal economic growth model in the view of factors of production are replaced.And in view of the goal about "2020 emissions intensity is reduced to 40%-45%in2005", which was converted to energy intensity targets, as a constraint condition into the model of measuring economic growth rate in 2015-2020 under the energy constraint.According to the results,the optimal economic growth in 2015-2020 is about 7%-8%.Fourth, the research of the industrial structure adjustment under the restriction of energy.Analyzing the national provincial panel data by system GMM on the basic ofadjustment of industrial structure. Discussing the dual effects of industrial structure adjustment to energy consumption from two dimensions,which are the balance and sophistication of industrial structure.The results showed:(1)the deviation degree of the three-industry structure tend to equilibrium state of a unit, energy consumption will decrease respectively 1.296,0.69,0.44 units; the sophistication of industrial structure has inhibitory effect on energy consumption, and the coefficient is-0.068;(2)the sophistication of industrial structure will also have an indirect effect on energy consumption through energy efficiency,energy structure,energy investment and the level of urbanization.The rapid development of tertiary industry and the sophistication of industrial structure will be an important trend to change the economic development under the new normal background.Finally, on the basis of the study, based on the current actual situation in China, and draw lessons from the domestic and foreign advanced experience, put forward to some suggestions to ease the contradiction between economic growth and energy constraints,such as enhancing scientific research, strengthening the construction of human capital, optimizing the flow of investment in fixed assets, promoting upgrading of the industrial structure, to strengthen international exchanges and cooperation,in order to providing the theoretical and empirical reference for social policy makers to finding balance between the energy and economy.