Research On The Coupling Coordination Degree Between Economic Development And Ecological Environment System Of Countries Along The Belt And Road

To address poverty and sustainability in developing countries,the Chinese government creatively combined the Belt and Road Initiative with the green development concept,and put forward the idea of building the green Belt and Road in 2017.The coordinated development of eco-economic systems in countries along the Belt and Road is the key to building the green Belt and Road.However,most of the countries along the Belt and Road are still in the early stage of industrialization,and the ecological and environmental problems faced by economic construction are complex.The disharmony,mismatch and synchronization between economic development and ecological protection are still prominent.Based on this,the paper builds an ecoeconomic index evaluation system to study the green development situation of countries along the Belt and Road.Starting from the coupling coordination relationship of eco-economic system,the paper studies the coupling effect intensity and the occurrence mechanism of coupling and coordination,and analyzes problems faced in the process of coupling coordinated development,studies the impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative on the coupling coordination degree.The research results are of great significance for countries along the Belt and Road to find a coordinated development path between economy and environment,and for China to make appropriate policies to improve the overall sustainable development level of countries along the Belt and Road and the international influence of the green belt and Road initiative.The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in the following three aspects:First,research perspective innovation.This paper focuses on countries along the Belt and Road and innovatively studies the coordinated development effect of eco-economy of the Belt and Road Initiative.Second,evaluation system innovation.This paper aims to establish a relatively complete eco-economic evaluation index system.In addition to the traditional measurement index,it mainly includes the relevant indexes that represent the typical transformation characteristics of the countries along the Belt and Road,in order to reflect the real situation of the economic environment of the countries along the Belt and Road as comprehensively as possible.Third,research strategy innovation.This paper takes the research on the coupling coordination degree of eco-economic system in countries along the Belt and Road as an example,and forms a research framework of theoretical analysis-index system construction-coupling degree research-coupling coordination degree research-policy impact research,in an attempt to provide references for future research on related coupling coordination issues.The paper is divided into seven parts,the research contents are as follows:This chapter mainly introduces the research background,the theoretical and practical significance of the research,the methods used in the research,the technical roadmap,the research content of each chapter,the innovation and shortcomings of the research.The research methods used in this paper include document analysis method,comparative approach,qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis.The innovation of the paper is mainly reflected in:the paper for the first time puts the research perspective on the coordinated development effect of eco-economic system of the "Belt and Road"Initiative,establishes a scientific and feasible index evaluation system,and innovates the research strategy of the coupling coordination relationship between the economic and environmental complex system.The second chapter is literature review and theoretical basis.This part firstly summarizes the research on the relationship between economic growth,resources and environment,resources and environment issues in countries along the Belt and Road,and the impact of international trade on environment,and summarizes the existing research.Secondly,the paper clarifies the concepts of "Belt and Road initiative","Green Belt and Road","coupling degree" and"coupling coordination degree",focusing on the necessity of the green "Belt and Road" construction.Finally,the paper lists the main relevant theories of this research,including system science theory,grey relation theory,sustainable development theory and environmental bearing capacity.These theory lay a theoretical foundation for the subsequent analysis.The third chapter is the comprehensive evaluation of eco-economic system of countries along the Belt and Road.First,this paper analyses the overall condition of eco-economic system along the Belt and Road countries,and summarized the main problem.Then,this paper establishes a comprehensive evaluation system between ecological environment and economic development,and calculate synthesis score of the two system respectively.Finally,we analyse the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of eco-economic system from the whole and regional level respectively.Chapter four is the research on the coupling relationship between ecological environment and economic development in countries along the "Belt and Road".Firstly,the paper analyzes the long-term dynamic relationship and causality relationship between ecological environment and economic development of Belt and Road countries through unit root,cointegration test and Granger causality test.Then this paper establishes the grey relational degree model,calculates the grey relational degree matrix,and determines the mutual influence degree of each element of the system.Finally,the coupling degree model was established to analyze the timing,spatial and convergence characteristics of the coupling degree,and the coupling degree types were classified by natural fracture method.The fifth chapter is the research on the coupling coordination degree of ecoeconomic system along the Belt and Road countries.Firstly,the coupling coordination degree model was established to systematically study the coupling coordination level and spatial distribution pattern between economic development and ecological environment in 44 countries along the Belt and Road from 2000 to 2018,and classify the coupling coordination types.Secondly,this paper uses Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis techniques to analyse the spatial correlation and spatial agglomeration characteristics of coupling coordination degree.On this basis,the GM(1,1)grey prediction model is established to predict the eco-economic system development index and coupling coordination degree trend in the next 10 years.The sixth chapter is the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on coupling coordination degree.Firstly,the paper puts forward the hypothesis through theoretical mechanism analysis.Then,the difference-in-differences model is established to study the overall impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on the level of economic development,ecological environment and coupling coordination.A series of robustness tests were conducted on the basis of baseline regression,including parallel trend test,placebo test,control of other policy effects,and replacement of the occurrence time of Belt and Road Initiative,to ensure the robustness of regression results.Finally,the paper analyzes and tests the influencing mechanism of the import and export trade and investment behavior on the coupling coordination degree in countries along the belt and Road.The seventh chapter is the research conclusion,policy suggestion and research prospect.This chapter first summarizes the problems facing the coupling coordination development of eco-economic systems along the Belt and Road countries at the current stage.Secondly,short-term,medium-term and long-term goals for green development has been set from the perspectives of strengthening economic cooperation,building institutions,and building a green community.On this basis,the implementation path of coupling coordinated development is discussed,including trend path,cluster path and interactive path.In terms of policy suggestions,firstly,differentiated regional sustainable development paths should be proposed according to the different development characteristics of the six economic corridors.The long-term mechanism to realize the coupling and coordinated development of eco-economic system is put forward from seven aspects:the promotion of green values,the construction of Dualcirculation global green value chain,the construction of ecological and environmental big data service platform,the establishment of international Green DevelopmentAlliance,the development of green finance,the construction of green system and the establishment of green security system.Finally,the future research on related issues is prospected.The paper draws the following four conclusions:First,through the analysis of the overall situation of green development in countries along Belt and Road,it is found that the environmental problems are complex and diverse,and there are many environmental challenges.Economic vitality is strong,but the overall development level is still low,and there is a large gap in the industrialization level among Belt and Road countries,showing extensive growth.The economic development level of countries along the Belt and Road has been rising.Central and Eastern Europe enjoys the highest level of economic development,followed by West Asia.Economic restructuring has become the most important force to drive the economy.In terms of ecological environment,the level of ecological environment in countries along the Belt and Road is on the rise as a whole,but the regional gap is still obvious.Central and Eastern European countries have the highest level of ecological environment,followed by Southeast Asia and West Asia,and south and Central Asia have been at a low level for many years.The second part is the conclusion about the coupling relationship between ecological environment and economic development of countries along the Belt and Road.The paper finds that there is a long-term equilibrium dynamic influence relationship between eco-economic systems of countries along the Belt and Road.The coupling degree model is established to measure the degree of mutual influence.It is found that the coupling degree is at moderate or high level in most Belt and Road countries.The coupling degree is increasing in the beginning and then decreasing.The regional coupling degree from high to low is as follows:In South Asia,Southeast Asia and Central and Eastern Europe,Central Asia and Northeast Asia.The spatial pattern changes of coupling degree mainly concentrated in Northeast Asia and Central and Eastern Europe,and the coupling degree of ecological environment and economic development in each region will show a trend of dissimilation.The third is the research conclusion about the coupling coordination level of ecological environment and economic development of countries along the Belt and Road.First,the level of coupling coordination in most countries along the Belt and Road has been steadily improving,but the overall level is still at the stage of primary coordination or basic uncoordination,and it is difficult to achieve a benign interaction between economic and environmental systems in a short period of time.The type of coupling coordination degree is mainly economic lag,while ecological lag and economic-ecological synchronization are not obvious.Second,there are obvious regional differences of the coupling coordination level among the Belt and Road countries.The regions with relatively high level of coupling coordination are mainly concentrated in Singapore,Israel,and relatively developed countries in Central and Eastern Europe and West Asia,while the regions with serious ecological pollution and relatively low coupling coordination are mainly distributed in Central Asia,Southeast Asia and South Asia.The spatial distribution pattern basically accords with the stepped distribution pattern of economic development decreasing from west to east.Thirdly,the coupling coordination degree of countries along the Belt and Road shows a strong positive spatial dependence,forming a "high-high" and "low-low" clustering characteristics in geographical distribution.The results of the grey prediction model show that the coupling coordination degree of the countries along the Belt and Road shows a good trend of evolution in the next ten years,and basically realizes a leap from the basic uncoordination stage to the primary coordination stage.The last part is the research conclusion about the effect of the Belt and Road Initiative and its trade and investment mechanism on the coupling coordination level.The implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative will significantly improve the coupling coordination level of eco-economic systems of participating countries,which is reflected in the improvement of economic development and ecological environment level,but the improvement of economic development level is more significant.After controlling the country characteristic variables and conducting a series of robustness tests,the values and significance of the coefficients do not change fundamentally.Through the trade mechanism,the Belt and Road Initiative can not only promote the increase of import and export volume between Belt and Road countries and China,but also promote the increase of total trade volume between Belt and Road countries and the world countries,and the increase of trade volume further promotes the overall improvement of coupling coordination level.It can be seen that China’s trade with the Belt and Road countries is oriented by green trade and takes into account both economic and environmental effects of trade activities.Through the investment mechanism,the Belt and Road Initiative has significantly boosted China’s investment in the Belt and Road countries,but due to the current economic development stage of the countries and the demand for the traditional industries investment along the Belt and Road,the promotion of green investment in these countries is relatively slow.The effect of green investment in coupling coordinated development still needs to be strengthened.The suggestions in this paper include two aspects:on the one hand,according to the different development characteristics of the six economic corridors,the paper puts forward differentiated regional sustainable development paths.Specifically,China,Mongolia and Russia should strengthen bilateral or multilateral environmental protection policy cooperation on green energy exploitation.The New Eurasian Land Bridge should focus on the sustainable development of energy resources and the improvement of the environment,and apply the advanced environmental protection technology of Europe and China at both ends of the corridor to help the middle zone with relatively fragile environment to achieve sustainable development.The ChinaCentral Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor should make full use of China’s advantages in technology,personnel and equipment to realize the greening of the energy industry value chain in the region.The China-Indochina Peninsula Economic Corridor should focus on the green projects and establish a green cooperation mechanism.The ChinaPakistan Economic Corridor should build a clean energy system,transform the economic development pattern and conduct cooperation in environmental protection field.The Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor should focus on industrial upgrading and transformation,international cooperation in environmental protection technologies,investment and construction of green industry,The promotion of the concept of green development,and the green aid to less developed countries.On the other hand,we need to construct a long-term mechanism to ensure the realization of coordinated development,including the promotion of green values,construction of dual-circulation global green value chain,construction of ecological and environmental big data service platform,establishment of international green development alliance,development of green finance,promotion of regional green legal system and green standards,and international green cooperation and development.This paper aims to solve the major practical problems of "poverty and environment" in developing countries along the Belt and Road,providing decisionmaking reference for adopting differentiated strategies according to local conditions to improve the coordinated development level of countries along the Belt and Road.At the same time,it theoretically enriches the application research of system theory,synergetic theory and other relevant theories in the coupling coordination development process of eco-economic system of the Belt and Road,and promote the integrated development of economy-environment related disciplines.In the future,a relatively perfect and universal eco-economic system index evaluation system of countries along the Belt and Road can be established to increase the sample size of countries along the belt and Road,and the mechanism of enhancing the coupling coordination degree of countries along the Belt and Road can be discussed from multiple perspectives.