Impacts Of Industrial Structure Adjustment On Electricity Demand And The Model Construction

Power industry is the basic industry of national economy, and the production and supply of electric power is the necessary condition for economic development, social progress and the improvement of people’s living standard. Since the reform and opening up, China’s economic growth mode has changed, and the industrial structure has been continuously adjusted, which leads to the change of the power supply and demand relationship. With the implementation of the strategy of sustainable development and the emergence of the new economic norm, the adjustment of the industrial structure will have an important impact on the electricity demand. Therefore, researching the impacts of industrial structure adjustment on electricity demand has practical significance to a regional economic development and power grid planning.In this paper, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis are combined to analyze the impacts of industrial structure adjustment on electricity demand from the three industries, the eight industries and high energy consuming industries. First, analyzing the impacts of industrial structure adjustment on the three industries’electricity demand and structure, and screening economic indexes which have great impact on electricity demand by Grey Relevance Theory, and building the model of regional industrial structure adjustment and power demand based on Co-integration Theory. Then, dividing the three industries into eight industries according to the National Bureau of Statistics, and analyzing the impacts of industrial structure adjustment on the eight industries’electricity demand and structure, and decomposing the electricity consumption and electricity intensity into effects of scale, structure and efficiency by Log-Mean Divisia Index Method (LMDI) to find the key factors of them. Finally, doing the further research to Industry, and analyzing the impacts of industrial structure adjustment on electricity demand and structure of the high energy consuming industries in Industry, and identifying the key factors influencing the changes of them by LMDI, and analyzing the impacts of industrial structure adjustment on the high energy consuming industries’electricity demand based on Panel Data Theory.This paper takes Shanxi Province as an example for researching, building the Co-integration Model of industrial structure adjustment, economic growth and electricity consumption, which proves that industrial structure adjustment does have an influence on electricity demand. The results of the eight industries’electricity consumption and electricity intensity decomposing by LMDI show that Industry is the key factor of them. Further analysis results on high energy consuming industries’electricity consumption and electricity intensity decomposing show that in non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry as the representative of the high energy consuming industries are the key factors. All these factor decomposing results confirm that the adjustment of industrial structure in Shanxi province has obvious influences on the electricity demand and structure. This paper also constructs Panel Data models of seven high energy consuming industries in Shanxi about economic growth, electricity utilization efficiency and electricity demand, and the results show that adjusting the structure of high energy consuming industries like non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, which have higher electricity intensity, can effectively reduce the power demand, and it is the key direction of Shanxi Province industrial structure adjustment in future.