Study On Temporal And Spatial Pattern Evolution And Influencing Factors Of Energy Consumption In High Energy-consuming Industry In Yangtze River Delta

General Secretary Xi Jinping promised at the 75 th United Nations General Assembly that China will increase its nationally determined contribution,strive to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030,and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by2060.The goal of “harmony and” has attracted widespread attention.As one of the most economically developed regions in China,the Yangtze River Delta region has attracted much attention for its carbon emissions.As the main consumption industry of fossil energy,high energy-consuming industries are key areas for pollution reduction and carbon reduction.This paper takes the Yangtze River Delta region consisting of Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Shanghai as the research area,and uses mathematical statistical methods such as spatial correlation analysis,kernel density analysis,and standard deviation analysis to explore the time and space of economic development and energy consumption in high-energy-consuming industries in the Yangtze River Delta region.Evolution characteristics,decompose the driving factors of energy consumption changes in high energy-consuming industries in the Yangtze River Delta region through the LMDI model,and explore the evolution characteristics of the driving factors in space and time and the change trend of energy consumption under the influence of policies.Research indicates:(1)The temporal and spatial pattern of the economy and energy consumption of the high energy-consuming industries in the Yangtze River Delta from 2005 to 2020 was analyzed.Based on the energy consumption data in the statistical yearbooks of various cities,this paper obtains the economic development and energy consumption data of the high energy-consuming industries in each city in the Yangtze River Delta.Through spatial autocorrelation,standard deviation ellipse analysis and other methods,it is found that the total industrial output value and energy consumption of high energy-consuming industries in the Yangtze River Delta region have increased and then stabilized,and have shown a downward trend in recent years.In terms of energy structure,it is characterized by a high dependence on coal-based energy.In terms of space,the spatial layout of gross output value and energy consumption is similar,showing a spatial pattern in which Nanjing,Suzhou,Shanghai,and Ningbo are the main cities in the central and southern-central regions,and Xuzhou is the main development city in the north.(2)The LMDI model is used to analyze the driving factors of energy consumption in high energy-consuming industries in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2005 to 2020,and the influencing factors are divided into energy consumption structure,energy consumption intensity,industrial structure of high energy-consuming industries,and industries of high energy-consuming industries.There are five influencing factors: scale and regional population size.The results show that industrial scale and energy consumption intensity are the two most important influencing factors,and the cumulative contributions are 161.317% and-89.289%respectively;the contribution values of energy consumption structure and industrial structure are both low;population size has a significant impact on energy consumption growth.Continue to promote the role of growth,with a cumulative contribution of 35.72%.(3)Combined with the LMDI model,a scenario simulation of the energy consumption of high energy-consuming industries in the Yangtze River Delta in 2030 is carried out to explore the development trend of energy consumption under the baseline scenario,the weak control scenario,and the strong control scenario.The results show that there is a certain gap between the prediction results under the strong intervention and the baseline situation and the prediction results under high energy consumption,indicating that there is still a high space for scientific energy conservation and emission reduction in the Yangtze River Delta region,in which energy consumption intensity and industrial scale are the most important.influencing factors.(4)According to the analysis results of the above parts,put forward energy-saving suggestions for energy consumption in high energy-consuming industries in the Yangtze River Delta region.