Analysis Of The Factors Affecting The New Urbanization Level Of Jiangsu Province

During the "Twelve Five" New Era, Jiangsu Province has put forward to the strategy of expanding urbanization and rural development integration strategy for the new urbanization concept, based on the new requirements of the development of science and development stage of the new changes. For the gradual depletion of demographic dividend bonus and institution, it has became the theoretical study of new issues to how to cherish the opportunity to adjust the industrial structure. to release the reform of the bonus so as to explore the road of sustainable development to better build a new urbanization in Jiangsu Province. In this paper, it has given the definition of the level of urbanization, the new connotation, influencing factors as well as projections for new urbanization prospects of these three angles to define a reasonable range of new urbanization development quality and the speed of development. The new urbanization research framework thus will help enrich and expand the new urbanization development theory, it will also provide an effective analysis tool for new urbanization sustainable development system.It was first defined the new urbanization of Jiangsu Province in the article. Then it analyzed the level of development of new urbanization in Jiangsu Province according to Hollis Chenery "development model", and thus the new stage made a preliminary judgment for the level of urbanization in Jiangsu Province. Secondly, the paper selected the industrial structure, technological education, population structure and infrastructure of the four level indicators, and subdivided them into 10 secondary indicators to analyze the economic development of Jiangsu Province’s new urbanization factor. Then, we use time-series data which from the year 1990 to 2012 to analysis influencing factors of urbanization with tools such as SPSS20.0 and Eviews6.0 software. After the above theoretical analysis and empirical testing, the paper finally constructed a mathematical model with time series forecasting methods to make a trend on the level of new urbanization development in Jiangsu Province, so as to predict the future urbanization lever. The paper also built a more targeted and more reasonable proposal, so as to achieve the original intention of writing this article.Knowing the new urbanization factors of Jiangsu Province,can helps us explore the mechanisms designed to build the new town.It also helps to form a reasonable geographical division of labor and specialization, promote inter-regional interaction talents and industry, boost the regional industrial structure upgrading, improve the income level of urban residents and rural residents in Jiangsu Province.The first innovation of the article is that the use of " Chenery bias" method to determine whether the level of urbanization is reasonable,then establish the panel data model to analysis the factors which affects new urbanization level.Finally the paper use time-series data to predict the rate of urbanization in Jiangsu Province for the next decades. Another innovation is that this article uses Northam curve to determine Jiangsu Province’s urbanization development stage, and constructs a time series of mathematical models of future trends and prospects in Jiangsu Province to predict the level of urbanization, the last gives some policy recommendations.