The Influence Factors And Housing Price Forecast Of Commodity House In Tianjin

The housing problem of residents is an important issue for a country.And the house price is closely related to people.Also real estate is now in the situation in which rapid development,national regulation and strengthening of housing security act together,the golden time of real estate development has passed.The competition of real estate has gradually entered the white-hot stage.With the following influences of housing land transfer auctions,the land cost rising,frequent project cooperation development mode,real estate new policy emerging in endlessly,rising prices and the current era of negative interest rates,it is very important to judge the future price of housing in Tianjin.This thesis analyzes how the price of the commercial housing was affacted by the cost of housing construction,the supply of commercial housing,the situation of economic development,the policy of real estate regulation and the psychological factors.Based on the data of which have made big influences on Tianjin commodity from 2006 to 2015.First using factor analysis method,select the bigger weighting indicators of similar factors as independent variables of regression model.Then we use SPSS software to make multicollinearity test of the above factors.Last per capita disposable income,the permanent population increment,loan interest rates,commercial housing cost and consumer expectation index as the model independent variables,house price as the dependent variable,multiple linear regression model will be established.SPSS software is also used to calculate the regression equation to make the simulation forecast of Tianjin's prices.And then to test the results.In addition,the influence degree of various factors on commodity house prices in Tianjin are compared by the calculation of standardized regression coefficient.The results show that the benchmark lending interest rate is negatively related to the commodity prices in Tianjin,and the consumer expectation index is positive related to the commodity prices in Tianjin.For Tianjin commodity prices,the per capita disposable income has been the biggest influencing factor.The impact of the permanent population is the second,and the impact of cost of Tianjin commercial housing almost is the last.With the continuous development of Tianjin economic and urbanization,and the measures of the government continuous increasing regulation of commercial housing market,commercial housing market will tend to be steady and rapid development in the future for a period of time in Tianjin.This thesis will provide significant reference to the government's policy-making,the construction of the project reserve of developers and the purchase decision of the buyers.