Research On The Correlation Between Economic Cycle Fluctuation And Industrial Structure Change In Xinjiang

The fluctuation of economic cyclation, being the main form of socio-economic activity, isholding the wide attraction of theoretical researchers from China and abroad. The scholarsfrom different nation studies and analyzes the fluctuation from the different point of view asthey studies the economic activity. For instance, the viewpoints include the impacts of fiscaland monetary policy, the impacts of the shift of industrial structure from total and internalaspects upon the fluctuation, etceteras. The frame work of studying the relations between thechange of industry and the economic fluctuation had become the main stream analyticalmethodology in studying the economic fluctuation activity within the china among theChinese scholars. As to Xinjiang, such kind of studying has not been evolved, or can say to benone any kind of work has been done. Hence, this paper, under the basis of related researchresults obtained by the Chinese and abroad scholars, by using the historical statistical data ofXinjiang, analyzes the relationship between the economic fluctuation and the change inindustrial structure with a deep insights. This paper defines the phase of economic circulationin Xinjiang from1955to2012in a total sense, then analyzes the change in industrial structurewithin those economic circulation period, under the basis of above said research result, byutilizing the econometrical method, make further clear the relationship between two, andlastly, put forward the countermeasures and suggestions according to the results from theanalytical work. The whole idea of studying this paper is as followed:Chapter one is the overall description of whole research. It is consists of the offering of thequest on, the backgrounds, document studies about the relationship between the fluctuation ofeconomic circulation and the shift of industrial structure, the frameworks of the whole paper,the methodology and the routine of doing research etcetera. The document studies include thestudying of Chinese related literature and the foreign related literature.Chapter two mainly and concretely states the theoretical basis for this research and the logicalstructure of whole paper.Chapter three defines the fluctuation phases of economic circulations in Xinjiang according to the economic data from1955to2012years and discusses the main features of eachfluctuation phase and the main causes that stirred op the fluctuation.Chapter four makes a judgment upon the correlation between the fluctuation of economiccirculation and the shift of industrial structure of Xinjiang by utilizing the analyzing methodsof index, coordinated impulse and Granger test and draws out the interaction relationsbetween the two.Chapter five offers the counter measures that points to optimize the industrial structure and toreduce and stabilizes the fluctuation under the basis of results obtained from the wholeresearch.The value of this research work is to discuss the correlations between the fluctuations ofeconomic circulations and the change in the industrial structure in Xinjiang, to judge thecause and result effects of change between the two. Doing this, therefore, has an importantsignificance in realizing the optimization of industrial structure in Xinjiang, stabilizing thetotal social economy and promoting the sustainable development in Xinjiang.