The Empirical Analysis Of The Impact Of China's Industrial Structure Changes To Economic Fluctuation

Since China's reform and opening up, economic growth of China is rapid and economic quality improved steadily. As the economic growth slow gradually in recent years, transformation of the mode of economic growth and ungrading of industrial structure has become a stable growth of Chinese economy's fundamental problems in the future. Through the development process of the world economy, the transformation and ungrading of industrial structure, and optimize continuous power has become a national economic development. At the same time, the existing research results in this field from different angles to reveal the changes of industrial structure and the relationship between the cycle of economic growth. So study of the change of industrial structure and economic fluctuation not only can enrich the theory, but also make positive sense to maintain the stability of China's economic growthIn this paper, by using the theory of industrial structure and economic cycle theory, based on the analysis of statistical data in China 1978-2013, from the phenomenon of economic fluctuation and industrial structure changes, it reveals the relationship between the industrial structure change and economic fluctuation; Through the establishment of first-order difference GMM model, the change of industrial structure and economic fluctuation has carried on the empirical research, it is concluded that the industrial structure rationally and highly has inhibitory effect on economic fluctuations, and makes suggestions in the perspective of industrial structure.This paper consists of six parts:the first part is introduction, it mainly introduces the research background, significance and purpose, and analysis the feasibility of problem. The second part is the related theories and literature review, it introduces about the theory of the economic fluctuation and the industrial structure, existing scholar to this topic for argument. The third part is the analysis of the mechanism of industrial structure change on economic fluctuation, it introduces how the change of industrial structure on economic fluctuation influences mechanism analysis. The fourth part is the statistical description of the change of industrial structure and economic fluctuations, by describing the reform more than 30 years China's real economy and the change of industry situation, analysis of the cause. The fifth part is on the impact of China's industrial structure change on economic fluctuation measurement analysis, through the quantitative analysis of China's industrial structure change on China's economic fluctuation data correlation. Based on the panel data of China's 31 provinces and cities in 1978-2013, the paper uses the first-order difference GMM model and analyzes China's industrial structure change on the impact of China's economic fluctuations in different times. The six parts is the conclusion and suggestion, based on the results of the empirical analysis, summed up the industrial structure rationally and highly movements, and some conclusions such as effect on economic fluctuations. For "adjust industrial structure, stabilize economic growth" put forward effective policy in the middle of the industrial structure changes of suggestions, and summarizes the full text.