A Study On The Relationship Between Economic Cycle Fluctuation And Industrial Structure Change In Guizhou Province

There has been a long time about the research on the economic cycle fluctuationsand macroeconomics, most economists hold the idea that economic growth processaccompanies with the economic fluctuations. As for the relationship betweenindustrial structure and economic growth, domestic and foreign economists generallybelieve that the change of industrial structure will promote or inhibit themacroeconomy. In the background of economic globalization and regional economicintegration, how to adjust the economic structures while not causing large fluctuationsat the same time becomes an urgent problem. So, as two forms of macroeconomics,there must be a certain correlation between the economic cycle fluctuations andindustrial structure change. However, most scholars study the question from thenational level, there’re relatively few researches on the district-based area. Moreover,the researchers often do not divide the whole period, ignoring the influence of thereform and opening policy.The research in this article uses64years’ data of the GDP and the three industryGDP data of Guizhou Province to study the economic cycle fluctuations and industrialstructure change before and after the reform and opening up. Specifically, the articleincludes the following three parts:To begin with, deal with the actual growth rate of the GDP of Guizhou Provinceusing HP filtering, treat the remaining cycle component as the measure of theeconomic cycle fluctuation, and divide the economic cycle relying on this. The studyturns out that Guizhou Province experiences a total of10cycles. Since the reform andopening up, the amplitudes of economic cycles are smaller and the durations ofeconomic cycles are longer than those before. These experiences are largelyconsistent with those of our country.Then, construct the comprehensive index of the industrial structure change, that is,molar structure index, analyze the relationship between economic cycle fluctuationsand industrial structure change using Granger causality test. The results show that thechange of the industrial structure is the unidirectional Granger cause of the economiccycle fluctuations.At last, carry out the vector autoregression model between the economic cyclefluctuations and industrial structure change. Here, we choose the output value of the three industries accounted for the proportion of the GDP of Guizhou Province as theindex of the change of the industrial structure. We find that before the reform andopening up, the second industry structure change has a great influence in economiccycle fluctuation; the drastic change in the proportion of the second industrycontributes to the frequency and larger amplitudes of the economic cycles. After thereform and opening up, it’s obvious that the third industrial structure change has bigeffect on economic cycle. The proportion of the increase of the third industrialstructure contributes to slowing down economic cycle fluctuations.