| In recent years, with the rapid growth, China's circulation industry plays an increasing important role in promoting the development of economy, it has not been subordinate industry any more but independent industry which has significant effects on the national economy and the people's livelihood, we call it guiding industry, infrastructure industry and leading industry. And the circulation industry, as the main part of circulation economy and circulation function carrier, especially in the period of our country implementing the strategy of boosting domestic demand, has become the promoter of that strategy. Therefore, the research on relationship among the circulation industry, the economic growth and the consumption has become an important subject in the field of present study on macro-economy.Under the guidance of existing theory and combining with china's reality, this paper studies the impact of circulation industry on economic development and discusses the channels and the possible mechanism of the china's economic development influenced by the circulation industry theoretically. With the time series analysis, panel data analysis, co-integration analysis and other modern econometrics methods, this paper tests empirically the influence of circulation industry on the economic development on the aspect of "quality" and "quantity" economic growth, industrial structure, consumption, people's livelihood (income, consumer welfare).This paper confirms the following results:1. Since the reform and opening up, China's circulation industry development is significantly improved on the level, structure and performance and its contribution to economic growth is rising ceaselessly, but compared with the developed countries, there.is still a certain gap.2. From the perspective of the impact of the circulation industry on economic growth, the result of the time series analysis of cross-country samples tells that there exists co-integration relationship between them, and the circulation industry can significantly promote the economic growth; from the perspective of different time periods, with the foreign capital gradually entering the field of circulation since1990, the facilitating effect of which has constantly upgraded, and at the same time, the Granger causality also has proved that the circulation industry can promote the economic growth. Besides, the panel data of31provinces analysis results also show that circulation industry can significantly promote economic growth. But from panel data analysis, there are obvious regional different in this stimulative function and the contribution to the eastern part on the whole is greater than that in the Middle and the West.3. From the perspective of the impact of the circulation industry on the change of industrial structure and the three strata of industry's development, the circulation efficiency's improvement caused by the development of circulation industry can significantly promote the continually development of the industrial structure to depth and width, and the circulation industry realize the industrial structure's adjustment and improvement with the relationship of supply and demand, and function of participation and penetration. At the same time, using the correlation analysis and grey relational analysis method, from the static and dynamic perspective of the relevance between the circulation industry and the three strata of industry, it is concluded that there are obviously close relationships. On the basis of the dynamic analysis of the VAR model's impact on the development of the circulation industry to the three strata of industry's development, we can make the conclusion that there is obvious co-integration between them. The Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition tell that circulation industry has a lasting and positive promoting function on the three strata of industry's development, but the explanation of the fluctuation of the industry is still needed to be improved.4. From the perspective of the impact of the circulation industry on consumption and improving people's livelihood (income and consumers'welfare), the circulation industry has co-integration relationship with them. The development of circulation industry can significantly promote the expansion of consumption, the growth of residents' income and the improvement of consumers' welfare.According to the above analysis, we can know that the circulation industry plays an important role in promoting the development of the economy and it is the important component to guarantee economic development. Therefore, to establish a sound circulation industry system and to ensure the steady development of the circulation industry is greatly important in promoting the development of the economy. |
