The Influence Of Industrial Structure Change On Economic Fluctuation In Yunnan Province:Ironing Or Enlarging?

Industrial structure refers to the combination and proportion composition of production departments in a country or region in the process of social and economic development,or the proportion of factors within each department.The change of industrial structure and its optimization and upgrading is an important index to measure the level of regional economic development.Therefore,a deep understanding of the internal relationship between industrial structure changes and economic fluctuations is of great significance to the development of regional economy and the promotion of sustainable economic development.This paper takes Yunnan province as an example,selects relevant data of Yunnan province's economic development from 1978 to 2017,studies the specific situation of industrial structure changes and economic fluctuations,and discusses the internal logical relationship between industrial structure changes and economic fluctuations.This paper first expounds the mechanism of industrial structure change on economic fluctuation,mainly introduces the mechanism of regional leading industry replacement and economic fluctuation,as well as the mechanism of factor flow and economic fluctuation.Then,the characteristic analysis of industrial structure change and economic fluctuation in Yunnan province is carried out.Then,the industrial structure change index and economic fluctuation index are measured by using Moore index method and HP filter method,and the changes of industrial structure rationalization and advanced are studied.By establishing SVAR model,impulse response function and variance decomposition method to analyze the impact of industrial structure change on economic fluctuations,from inside the system state space model analysis of three times industry change on the size of the influence of economic fluctuation,and finally using the volatility of variance decomposition contribution model.Through the research of this paper,it is found that since the reform and opening up of Yunnan province,the change of industrial structure has become more and more reasonable,effectively ironing out the cycle fluctuations of the economy.Among them,the changes of the primary industry have less and less ironing effect on economic fluctuations,the changes of the secondary industry have more and more stable ironing effect on economic fluctuations and occupy higher influence,and the tertiary industry has more and more prominent ironing effect on economic fluctuations.