The Research On Shortage Of Rural Labor And Their Return

The model of Todaro shows that the gap between urban and rural expected income is the main factor of rural labors’ transfer. Nearly three decades of rural labor mobility in China is a practical test of the Todaro model.20years ago there was a boom of migration, then it turned to shortage of rural workers in2003, now quite a lot rural labors move back and work near their family. Urban-rural and regional income gap continues to expand which means the force of rural labors’ transfer has been strengthening in accordance with the Todaro model, and the quantity of labors’ transfer is also increasing, so why those factories have the problems of recruitment?In order to analyze rural labors’ transfer and return, this paper formulates a model to show the mechanism of their behaviors. We believe that net income is the most concern of rural labors. As a rational economic man, they will put a carefully weigh on their net income between city and hometown. If the former is more than the latter, rural labors will choose to stay in the city, otherwise, they return to their hometown. In the empirical study, we validate the model’s efficiency by using the data which was collected in the form of questionnaire from the city of Nanjing, Beijing and Xiamen. In the same time, we deeply analyze the factors which have effect on the rural labors’transfer by using the model of Logit. Regression results show that the net income earned in the city will attract rural labor moving into city strongly and the people who have more than5acres of land or earn more than15,000Yuan in local town prefer to return to their home. Besides, we also studied the influence of gender, age, work experience and other factors for rural labors’ transfer and return.The lasting labor shortage of eastern region shows that the era of cheap labor supplying has passed, and obviously it has a bad effect on the development of eastern coastal areas. Facing the new socio-economic environment, we must adjust the policy to attract new proper labor transferring to the city successfully and stably to satisfy the labor need of eastern economic development. In the same time, some labors choose to return back home which shows the economic development of the vast rural areas and the Midwest meets their expected income. From this perspective, we should take measures to guide the transfer and return rationally to build a new harmonious rural economy.