Study On The Causes And Countermeasures Of Return Migration In Chongqing

In the year of 2004, along with national agricultural development policy, Chinese rural migrant workers rushed back to their home-villages, shaping another eye-catching phenomenon after the previous tide of peasants going out and temporarily coming back in the mid 1990s. Through establishing a theoretical model with strong explanatory power for the return of these migrant rural workers, this thesis explores the significance implied in this social phenomenon by quantitatively analyzing all factors affecting their return behavior, with the aim to provide persuasive policy suggestions on this aspect.The logic structure of this thesis is as follow. Based on the current situation of rural labor migration in the west of China, the author firstly introduces the patterns of labor migration, analyzes the historical process of their return, and points out the contradictory reality of rural labor return against the existence of labor shortage. And then, by introducing the related theories and models form home and abroad, and starting from the actual circumstances in Chongqing China, this thesis proposes the key model to explain this phenomenon---the panoramic push-pull-joint force theory and model. Next, based on in-depth statistic analysis of sample survey data, the author obtains a list of factors affecting the return of rural migrant workers, and then conducts empirical study on these factors and the econometric model. Finally, relevant policy suggestions would be provided on basis of the statistical analysis and empirical analysis,Through detailed household investigation, in-depth theoretical analysis and empirical study, the author achieves the following significant results, which are also the major innovative points of this thesis.Firstly, the theoretical model of panoramic push-pull-joint force is established to analyze the labor migration. Based on analysis of Lewis model, Latin America - fee model, Jorgensen theory, Todaro model, the new theory of migration as well as the push-pull theory, in consideration of rural labor migration reality in the Chongqing-based western region, the theoretical model of panoramic push-pull-joint force is set up as the framework for the whole theoretical analysis. Since there exist the push and pull forces in both rural and urban areas, inside the general framework, the final joint force formed by the 4 types of push and pull forces is essential for the rural labor migration decision making, Thus, the change from focus only on endogenous factors to both the endogenous and exogenous factors, the change from single push &pull force to double push &pull forces, the change from separate pull and push force to joint push-pull force, and the change from enclosed force small-cycle to the panoramic joint-force big cycle, produces out the panoramic push-pull-joint force theoretical model based on the traditional labor migration push-pull theoretical model, and further upgrades the research on return of rural migrant workers.Secondly, the main reasons for return of migrant rural workers are clarified based on household investigation and quantitative analysis. The Probit model and Logit model are used to analyze factors affecting the return of migrant labors based on questionnaires and interviews in some of towns and villiages of Chongqing Municipality. 12 indicators enter the decision-making model as affecting factors, including institutional factor, policy factor, traditional and cultural factor etc. Through analysis it is concluded that factors like sex, marital status, number of labor remaining at home-village, accumulative working time, family per capita arable land, number of pre-school and school-age children in the family etc exert outstanding influence on the return phenomenon, while contrary to general expectations ,the education level has no apprant impact on this phenomenon. Moreover, although the national agricultural development policy promotes the motivation of peasants to conduct farming, it hardly constructs the mian reason for the return of migrant rural workers.Finally, the countermeasures to resolve problems in the return of migrant rural workers are put forward. Inside the framework push-pull joint force model, based on actual factors of pushing and pulling, this thesis proposes policy suggestions from urban perspective, rural perspective, as well as the rual-urban coordinated development strategic perspective, including refroming on the rural-urban division market system in an active and prudent way to clear obstacles for rural people becoming citizens, exploring public service covering the migrant rural workers in their home-village to improve service performance for rural workers, strengthening rural social community service to encourge the rural workers going out without worrying about issues back at home, promoting the system of land contract and popularization of machines in agricultural production to stimulate scale production of agriculture in rural area, and also emphasizing the improtance of stable employment of migrant rural workers in the urban area, etc, which are all feasible and practical.