The Quantitative Analysis Of Rural Labors’ Transfer And Reflux Problem

Reflux of rural labors is another new population movement after the large-scale rural labors transfer to urban, and with the introduction of the national series of preferential policies towards rural areas, reflow trend becomes apparent. In this paper, we will do the research on the title of "the quantitative analysis of rural labors’ transfer and reflux problem based on Guangdong Province". I hope these analyses can provide some advices for government to deal with the rural labor reflux problem.This paper begins with the study of the factors that affect rural labor transfer from the macro level, taking the transfer of rural labor force in the geographical space correlation into account.We should put the spatial effects into rural labors’ transfer employment models. Then establish the spatial econometric model of Chinese rural laborers’ transfer behavior. The results show that:firstly, the transfer behavior of rural laborers has significant spatial dependence. In the results of panel data analysis, the neighborhood transfer of rural labor employment behaviors influences not only the local transformation behaviors by the spatial lag, but also the local transformation behaviors by impacting the error of local transformation behaviors. Secondly, on the one hand,the share of consumption of non-agricultural products, rural income, and expenditure are the fundamental factors that affect Chinese rural laborers’ transfer behavior.This paper will do research on Guangdong province. According to the spatial effects of rural labors’ transfer, we select the rural labors from the neighboring provinces such as Jiangxi, Hunan and Anhui as survey subjects. Then began to do the survey about returning hometown or staying in the city in 2013 and got 286 copies of valid data. Then build a “push and pull” theoretical model of rural labor transfer, to provide a theory basis for analyzing the reflow decision of rural laborers from micro-level. Then we established an Ordered probit model for analyzing factors that affect the choice of whether reflow or not by rural laborers. The result of the model shows that times of going home in one year, wage, agenda and whether the company has bought insurance and provided training have significant influence on the choice of returning hometown or staying in city of rural labors.At last, we have analyzed the advantages and disadvantages on the outflow and inflow areasafter reflux. And found that the rural labors that run business after reflux can bring a lot of positive effects.