Research On Regional Social Accounting Matrix Multiplier Analysis And Energy Industries’ Structural Path

Social Accounting Matrix is a kind of economic accounting matrix table describingthe operation of the economic system, it can reflect the income streams and expenditurestreams among the whole society’s economic activity,as well as the correlation betweeneach sector。The study of SAM began in1960s，then more and more scholars andinstitutions applied it to economic studies at the national and regional level.MultiplierDecomposition and Structural Path Analysis (SPA) are the two most analytical methodsbased on SAM.Energy is a kind of very important factor production element, the impact on allaspects of economic activity caused by fluctuations in the energy industry can not beignored.Whether from the perspective of the state or of the regional economy,theresearches on the the energy industry’s impact on economic activity are very significant.In Chongqing, with the accelerating of the industrialization process of furtherdevelopment of economy and society, consumption demand for energy is growing at anunprecedented rate, while shortage of energy resources has become a major bottleneckin the social and economic development of Chongqing. The study of energy industry’simpact on each sector of the economy has become an important research direction.In this paper, based on the collection of Chongqing statistic data of2007year, weconstructed Chongqing macro-SAM of2007year and refined the macro SAM, anddivided the industry sector into42subdivided industry sectors.Then the refined SAM isa data base,this paper analyzed the multiplier impact on other endogenous accountscaused by subdivided energy industry sectors which subject to exogenous shocks, aswell as the multiplier impact on subdivided energy industry sector accounts caused byother endogenous accounts.Then those accounts subject to greater influence wereselected to further Structural Path Analysis. Structural Path Analysis is used to revealthe paths and mechanisms of exogenous accounts’ shock on endogenous accounts. Bymultiplier analysis, the paper found the impact on economy caused by fluctuations inthe energy industry is relatively smaller than which is caused by fluctuations in themanufacturing, construction and agriculture sectors.Besides, the multiplier of gas andoil industry is on bottom of the rankings. Among the impact of the energy industry,thenet transfer effect within industry sectors is more obvious than that on other institutionalsectors and elements sectors,and the net open-loop effect on institutional sectors and elements sectors is more obvious than that on industry sectors. By Structural PathAnalysis, this paper found among the the impacts of the energy industry, the basic“point to point”path is most influential.Finally, this paper proposed suggestions for future research.