Multiplier Decomposition And Structural Path Analysis Based On The Social Accounting Matrix Of GanSu Province

After summarizes the basic principles of social accounting matrix(SAM), the social accounting matrix and input-output tables was compared, then illuminated the relationship and differences between the two methods, and point out that SAM is a portrait of the true income distribution of the socio-economic system, rather than elements distribution of income, thus the SAM has its advantages for the analysis of income distribution. Took Gansu Province in 2002 as an example, the characteristics, data collection was described in detail. Based on the original SAM, after a brief introduction of the cross-entropy balance method, the software GAMS was used to balance the original table. Accounting to the sectors of input-output table, macro-SAM was split. The SAM can provide a good foundation for more complex modeling, such as CGE models.The SAM multiplier decomposition and structural path analysis were respectively expatiated. Based on the comparative analysis between the two methods, structural path analysis can be considered a further decomposition of the multiplier, and it can reveal the transfer path of impact in a general equilibrium system, and identify the key nodes for provide more detailed and accurate information for scientific management. Based on the 2002 SAM of Gansu Province, I defined a variety of scenarios, then used the multiplier decomposition and structural path analysis for the characteristic of industrial structure and income distribution in Gansu.In this paper, results of the analysis of economic systems can be concluded: 1) the direct conduction path between endogenous accounts has the relative significantly effects, in which, the impact on the direct path of agriculture to manufacture accounting for 19.6 percent of the total impact, but judging from the proportion of the total effect of 80 percent is channeled through non-direct conduction path of transmission, which is the result of multiplier analysis is consistent.; 2) the manufacturing sector have played a relatively important role in the process of impact transmission, specially for non-direct paths of agriculture to mining, the manufacture was the highest path node, accounting for 0.6% of the total impact, in all the paths from agriculture to mining, non-direct path through manufacturing sector, was 9 times greater than the direct path, and reveal the path of non-direct impact may be greater than the direct path impact; 3) in all the paths from agriculture to mining, non-direct path through manufacturing sector, was 9 times greater than the direct path, and reveal the path of non-direct impact may be greater than the direct path impact; 4) from the contrast of paths, the asymmetric transmission of impact in economic system was revealed, the manufacturing sector depended on agriculture, and increased by 1 per unit exogenous injection for agriculture, the final output of the manufacturing sector will increase 0.79 units, however, the impact of the direct path of conduction is only 3.09%, this shows that the impact of the manufacturing sector, more impact was conducted trough those indirect paths; 5) the impact of production accounts on labor greater than the impact on capital, and results show that increased by 1 unit each exogenous injection for agriculture, it will increased income 0.85 units, Manufacture play a relatively important role in impact of agriculture on two kinds of capital; 6) the government subsidies for rural residents was greater than urban residents 130%, but the manufacturing sector into the urban residents more than rural residents 50%.Based on the calculation results, some suggestions to economic restructuring in Gansu Province was point out. 1) Agriculture was on the basic position in the economic system of Gansu province, but it was big nor strong, so we should increase investment and promote technological innovation. 2) because of manufacturing sector play the important role in the economy, it should be pay more attention, but the manufacturing sector in Gansu Province depended on agriculture highly, and therefore need to adjust the internal structure of the manufacturing sector to promote industrial upgrading. 3) industries in Gansu province was still in the labor-intensive stage, the structure should be adjusted. 4) the response of rural population to external effects (mainly the government subsidies and transfer payments) has driven the national economy greater than response of urban residents, it says that the transfer payment should give prior to rural residents.Finally, I summed up the inadequacies and point out the direct of in-depth study of future work. Computable general equilibrium model can be used in future research to overcome the strong assumes of classic SAM model.