| Gansu province (92°13′E-108°46′E,32°31′N-42°57′N) which located in thenorthwest of China is one of the great bases of commercial foodstuff. With thedevelopment of urbanization, industrialization and so on, many problems such as theloss of farmland, agricultural production fluctuation have become increasingly fiercesince Reform and Opening Up. So carrying out the research on agriculturalproduction fluctuation, investigating the factors which result in the change ofagricultural production and forecasting the agricultural production is urgently required.In this paper, select the major grain-producing province of the northwest China-Gansu province as the study area. It explores the impacts that affect the regional grainproduction, by choosing socio-economic statistics from1949to2011, based onquantitative and qualitative analysis to the grain dynamic changes in34years. Afterthat, GM (1,1) prediction model was established depend on the data about grainproduction of Gansu province in the past34years. Then the paper carried out thesimulation and prediction in medium and long-term on food production of Gansuprovince in the next ten years (2012-2021). The results provide a scientific basis forrelevant grain production departments of Gansu province. The main research contentsand results are as follows：(1) From1949to2011, the characteristics of the dynamic change about the grainproduction in Gansu province mainly performance in three aspects. Firstly, itdisplayed a significantly fluctuated growth in grain production but the fluctuations ingrain production in recent years has slowed down; secondly, the curve line of totalgrain production, the changing trends of per capita food production and grain yieldper unit area are basically alike; Finally, there was typical oscillation such as38a,23aand15a in grain production variation in Gansu Province on a time scale of63yearssince the founding of our motherland, particularly, the38a and23a oscillationdominated. The province’s total grain output increased from206million tons in1949to1014.6million tons in2011.In addition, the average annual growth rate of2.6%Percapita food increased from212.71kg in1949to2777.52kg in2011and the average annual growth rate of1.01%, what is more, the average annual growth rate of2.47%Grain yields from612.43in1949to2777.52kilogram per hectare in2011.(2) Per capita occupancy of grain of many cities are still in the400kg standardsafety under the lower limit, it have high degree of external dependence and low grainsafety coefficient, such as JiaYuGuan city, Lanzhou city, GanNan autonomousprefecture, Linxia autonomous prefecture, Tianshui city and Jiuquan city. In addition,Per capita occupancy of grain of other eight cities is higher than400kg standard safetythreshold; degree of food safety is high and there no food crisis in general.(3) The space difference of average annual growth rate of grain yield is markedlyin Gansu province from1949to2011, the Hexi corridor region is relativelyconcentrated, with high average annual growth rate of numerical in Gansu province,Zhangye city have the average annual growth of7.81%; JiaYuGuan city have theminimum, only0.43%. Depending on the type of food security in the region, adjustmeasures to local conditions, comprehensive control, reasonable adjust regional grainloss, and safeguard grain security in the region.(4) The average rainfall from March to October of1978-2011in Gansu Provincehave a significantly negative correlation with drought affected area and droughtdisaster area, besides, the temperature have a Positive correlation with droughtaffected area, drought disaster area. The average annual rainfall decreased andextreme drought climate events occur frequently, it is the main reason of droughtdisaster area expand, grain production drop sharply. The trend of climate warm anddry becomes accelerated, the harm to agriculture become more obvious andthreatening the grain security of Gansu province seriously.(5)Three major components of the impacts on food production aresocio-economic development level, such as the total power of agricultural machineryand effective irrigated area. Socio-economic factors play as the main driving factorwhich affects Gansu grain production change greatly. However, the effects of naturalconditions on grain production can not be underestimated. The contribution rate of thethree main components of food production in Gansu province is73.58%,11.893%and7.148%.(6) Grain production will keep the sound development momentum from2012to 2021through the forecasting results. Concretely speaking, the grain production ofGansu province will reach12.28million tons in2021.There will be an increasing of2.14million tons compare to2012. |
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