| The factors of regional agricultural production flowing in space, market,technology, cropping system in different county, resulting in regional agricultural production performance of a significant spatial effect. Anhui Province as one of China’s major grain producing province, the variation characteristics of grain production,and influencing factors had received wide attention from scholars, but the relative researches lack of effect of spatial effect in grain production. This paper on the basis of previous studies, applied spatial statistics and spatial econometrics method to study the regional pattern of grain production in Anhui Province county.This paper from the point of view of county regional pattern of grain production,using the method of spatial data analysis, study the features in regional pattern of grain production in the county of Anhui province during the data 1985 to 2014. Based on grain yield index segments, from two different point of view:technology with factor inputs and crop planting structure, to analysis the causes which affecting regional pattern of grain production of qualitative. Based on the research about influencing factors of grain production, the paper chose the per capita GDP in various counties of Anhui Province, planting area, affected crop area, total power of agricultural machinery, agricultural fertilizer fertilizer, the use of pesticides, agricultural labor force as the explanatory variable, grain yield as the explained variable. Further research on county regional pattern of grain production factors, this paper establish a spatial lag model (SLM) and spatial error model (SEM), based on the relative data in 2005,2010 and 2014,to study the factors which influencing the pattern change of grain production in different counties in Anhui province.Through drawing grain yield equidistant distribution maps of grain output in each county of Anhui Province, we found out that all of the county have varying degrees of growth in grain production, but total cereal production appear substantial growth in the county are mainly concentrated in the middle area and northern area of Anhui Province. And the prefecture level cities located in the south of Anhui Province was much slower than the prefecture level cities located in northern in the growth of the annual grain output.The result of local correlation of grain output in each county is shows that, from 1985 to 2014, the space agglomeration of county domain grain production in Anhui Province appears to the north and south ends of the differentiation trend, significant H-H County gradually migrated to the north and range of aggregation continues to expand; significant L-L County maintained in the location of the southern prefecture level city and significant L-L gathering area continues to expand, H-L and L-H regions in the county unit total in reducing, the amount of significant H-L and significant L-H county is small and only change a little, spatial outliers effect weakened.Integrated a variety of crop of global Moran’s I test results and Lisa test results, the rice, wheat and corn yield of various county of Anhui Province all have spatial agglomeration. And the positive correlation, the space agglomeration of wheat and maize is stronger than the paddy. This is due to the planting area cause. The planting area of the wheat and corn are mostly concentrated in the cities and counties in northern Anhui Province, and rice planting area of relatively wide, this in a certain extent weakened the spatial agglomeration effect. Technology and factor input on the spatial correlation analysis showed that, the Moran ’I of technical factors have fluctuated lower trend in different time section. And decrease mainly because of the decrease in the number of counties in both of the H-H area and L-L region; and agricultural production factors investment Moran’s I in different time section presented growth trend, which is synchronization with the total grain. Illustrate this, the main source of grain production spatial agglomeration effects is agricultural production factors investment scale, rather than technical level.Through the establishment of OLS, SLM and SEM to fit the county’s grain production in Anhui Province, the best simulation effect is the SEM model, which further confirms that the existence of spatial interaction in grain production in the counties of Anhui province. County regression results show that the most significant factor influencing the grain production is the sown area, The second is the spatial effect of the disturbance in the neighboring area. The influence of the adjacent area may be the level of economic development, planting mode and so on.According to the results of the analysis, there is a significant interaction effect between grain production and grain production in each county, and from 1985 to 2014, the spatial correlation is strengthened continuously.But the spatial agglomeration effect is mainly derived from the input scale of the county agricultural production factors, but not the level of production technology. According to the research conclusion, put forward advice like protect the farming area, strengthen inter regional information exchange and sharing, improved agricultural production technology. |
