Development Of An Application System For Flood Prediction Based On Storm-flood Principles

Flood forecast and dispatching are very important non-engineering measures forflood protection and management. This is especially true for nowadays, when theflood management concepts are changing with the rapid development of science andtechnology. The original emphasize on flood control nowadays has evolved into floodmanagement and utilization. However, to support this change, we need to obtainaccurate and in time flood information and forecast, only through which, can flooddiversion and protection measures be applied to help emergency evacuation and tominimize flood disaster loss to a minimum. With the rapid development of computerscenic and technology, the research field of hydrology and water resources havechanged greatly and modern measures are being used more and more in hydrologicalforecast and reservoir dispatching etc.The basic principle of flood prediction using rainstorm data is to derive the peakflow rate and discharge process of flood with certain design frequencies based on therainfall intensity distribution data and using the runoff yield and conflux theories. It isone of the most important flood prediction methods in the field of hydrologicalcomputation. In this thesis, the hydrological computation principles and flood forecastprinciples were introduced. A domestic systematical hydrological computationsoftware was developed. Conventional hydrology computation methods popular inChina were adopted thought the software development, with also close reference theactual hydraulically situation in Hainan Province, China. Mainly the following workswere done in this thesis:(1) Development of a programming framework specially designed for professionalhydrological computation software with complex flowchart, which includescomputation flowchart design, data structure organization and algorithm design andso on. It includes: top level computational model decomposition using a workbench;organization of complex computational flowchart using wizard and navigationalfunctions; object oriented program designing using the organic combination ofoperational controls, page controls and real-time diagram display controls.(2) Optimized curve fitting for hydrological frequencies was developed by sampletraversing within the sampling space formed by discretized expectation, deviationcoefficient and skew coefficient of times series of hydrological data. Least square wasadopted as the objective function. Use multithread parallel computation technique to acceleration the optimization computation of hydrocoral statistics, which greatlyimproved the efficiency and accuracy.(3) Under the framework of flood prediction using rainstorm data, forecast floodprocess was forecast using Guangdong Integral Unit Line Method and the ReasoningMethod, which were also combined with reservoir dispatching computation, forming arelatively complete set of hydrological computation software system.With the support of the above computational method and programming mode,professional software for hydrological computation was developed based onvisualized programming technology. The software was then applied in majorwatershed and major reservoir projects in Hainan Province, which tested the practicalapplication of the software.