Xiao Jing Gou Water Conservancy Project Risk Identification And Evaluation

With the rapid development of the economy in our country, the water conservancy industry, as a basic industry of our national economy, has also made a huge development and many water conservancy projects are launched and implemented which have achieved significant economic and social benefits. However,the water conservancy industry has the following characteristics, such as large construction scale, highly specialization and process complexity. Therefore, there are countless risk factors in the process of the projects, such as technological risks,financial risks, social risks, political risks and so on. How to identify and evaluate these risk factors scientifically has been a complicated and difficult task and also has gained extensive attention from more and more experts and scholars. This article has mainly studied the following aspects:(1) With the topic of Xiao Jing Gou water conservancy project, this article analyzed its risk factors thoroughly, discussing the connotation and characteristics of risks. Based on the theory of risk identification, the connotation and characteristics of Xiao Jing Gou water conservancy engineering project risk identification has been expounded and describe the specific process of risk identification. Fall tree analysis method and expert investigation method has been chosen as risk identification methods in this paper.(2) Based on the above risk identification methods, according to the theory of whole life cycle of projects, the Xiao Jing Gou water conservancy engineering project risk evaluation index system, which include 4 primary indexes and 20 secondary index, has been established.(3) On the basis of risk evaluation theory, the meaning and evaluation of Xiao Jing Gou water conservancy engineering project risk evaluation process has been expounded.(4) The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and the expert investigation method have been used to construct the Xiao Jing Gou water conservancy project risk fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model and the analytic hierarchy process has been chosen to determine the weight of each risk factor.(5) With Xiao Jing Gou water conservancy project as an example, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is applied in this paper in order to apply theory to practice, so as to verify the validity of the model, and to provide theoretical support for the decision of risk managers.