Risk Identification And Evaluation Methods Research Of A Type Of Radar Seeker Development Project

Most of the space program requires high funding and long development cycle, has no specific risk. In the context of the economic downturn, the competition of domestic and foreign aerospace products market becomes more intense. In order to guarantee the reliability of the aerospace products and improve the market competition ability and economic benefits, we must carry out comprehensive risk identification and risk evaluation, develop specific risk response measures to reduce the risk of occurrence.On the basis of consulting a lot of documents and practical research, this thesis makes a comprehensive and in-depth analysis of risk identification and evaluation methods of a type of radar seeker. The main work is as follows:1. Combined with the characteristics of the project to establish a risk management system, the risk management office of the members and their respective responsibilities, the reliability management team, key technology research group, the integrated program management team and the major system test management team of 4 specific risk management team’s specific functions;2. Used Delphi method to carry out three rounds of investigation, the project was determined 30 risk factors and risk levels. Used WBS-RBS method, the project was divided into 6 stages, such as start-up, demonstration, scheme, etc. WBS was divided into 6 product realization process, such as design, production, testing, etc. RBS was divided into 7 risk categories, such as technical risk, schedule risk, etc, and then further decomposed into 30 risk factors, such as design defect risk, technological feasibility risk, etc.3. Used Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation, the project was established the risk evaluation model, defined the factor set and evaluation set, designed a’risk evaluation questionnaire’, established the judgment matrix and fuzzy evaluation matrix, calculated the weight of each layer to determine the consistency of the test, calculated the risk level of 30 risk factors and sorted by from big to small.4. Combined with the actual situation of the project, the risk response measures of 30 risk factors were formulated. Risk identification, evaluation, response and monitoring were carried out at all stages of the project and achieved good results. In accordance with the performance indicators, schedule, budget and safety requirements, the project completed the development task and achieved the quality target of’success in a successful operation, a successful flight’.The thesis takes a type of radar seeker development project as an example, analyzes and studies risk identification and evaluation methods of the project, has the substantial guiding significance. It can also be used for reference to other same type of aerospace engineering development projects.