Study On Microcosmic Mechanism And Path Optimization Of CCS Industrialization Based On System Dynamics

In 2013,global carbon dioxide emissions had reached a record about 36 billion tons,Chinese emission which was the first place had accounted for 27%of the total in the world,was twice then the US,and the annual rate of growth is about 5.9%.Chinese emission problem become more and more serious.Although the domestic new energy industry develops well,but in China, coal is still the primary energy resources,and the secondary energy is the electricity which is still based on coal, and it can not be changed rapidly.Based on the existing energy structure,how to complete the emission reduction task while ensure economic growth at the same time is the problem we need to face.CCS has its irreplaceable strategic significance to control carbon dioxide emissions in China.It can not only meet the requirements of the energy structure in our country but also can effectively reduce the carbon dioxide emissions of the electric power cement steel and coal chemical industry.It has smaller effect on the economy,and is the effective way to achieve the economic growth while reduce the carbon dioxide emissions.However,CCS is still at the stage of demonstration in our country.It become the priority to find the possible optimal industrialization path for the CCS by using the scientific method.This paper is based on the industry organization theory,combining the study of CO2 value chain of CCS industry system,and qualitative analyzed the interaction mechanism between the members in the system.And based on this,the paper has constructed the system dynamics equation of the evolution of the CCS industrialization by applying the methods of the feedback loop system and flow diagram intuitive to show the main members of the interaction mechanism.The economic feasibility of industrialization of CCS is also quantitative and qualitative analyzed by simulation.This paper identified the key variables that affect system industrialization,and inspect the CCS industrialization process under different path by change the key variable assignment.and last provide certain policy recommendations for the CCS industrialization.