A Study On Coupled Linkage Between Export Trade Structure And Industrial Structure In Fujian Province

Trade structure and industrial structure are two hot issues in economics research. Inthe internal economy, industrial structure is the skeleton of the economy, determinesthe speed of economic development, quality and direction of future development; inthe open economy, trade structure is another key factor which affects the economicgrowth, it directly reflects the industrial competitiveness and precedence in theinternational division of labor.“12th Five-Year Plan” points out that we shouldalways adjust and optimize the economic structure, and makes it as the main directionto accelerate the transformation of economic development, underline the optimizationand upgrading of industrial structure, convert the growth mode of foreign trade, andplay the main role of Fujian in the economic zone on western coast of the Straits.Therefore, study the coupled linkage of Fujian’s export trade structure and industrialstructure, then explore the problem of how to coordinate the development, which hasrealistic significance.This paper uses the empirical and qualitative analysis to study the linkage ofFujian’s export trade structure and industrial structure. On the part of the qualitativeanalysis, firstly summarize the theory of international trade and industrial structure toexplore the theoretical supports of the linkage between export trade structure andindustrial structure; then based on theories to analyze the factors of common effect,and particularly analyze the mechanism of the interaction. On the part of theempirical analysis, firstly based on the statistical data to examine the historicalcoupling relationship between export trade structure and industrial structure, andquantify the effect of structural change; besides use the vector autoregressive (VAR)model to analyze the linkage between export trade structure and industrial structure;then respectively use the export endogenous growth model and the semi-logarithmicregression model to analyze the effect of export factors to industrial structure, and theeffect of three industries to export trade structure.By the statistical analysis and empirical research, it finds a long-term co-integration relationship has exited between Fujian’s export trade structure and industrial structure.Industrial structure has importantly determinative effect to export trade structure, butbecause some unreasonable factors still exist in the integral and individual structureof three industries, which may not be conducive to optimize the export trade structurein the short term. Export trade structure has a lag-effect to influence the industrialstructure, and its influence on the industrial structure has limitations, the impact isrelatively weak, the optimization of industrial structure is mainly influenced by itsown internal structure adjustment. Based on the above analysis and conclusions, thepaper argues that Fujian should optimize the export trade structure by upgrading theindustrial structure, and promote the upgrading of industrial structure by optimizingthe export trade structure.