Statistical Research On The Effect Of Population Age Structure Change To Industrial Structure In China

The problem of population is the most basic social problem, as well as the key to restrict the structure of economy. Under the circumstance of “China’s New Normal”, the rapid growth of Chinese economy slows down gradually and the economic structure has transformed to new direction, with all these reform,the population age structure in China is also changing. Owing to the consequential of population birth rate and mortality in our country, the proportion of the elderly population shows a rising trend and the trend of population aging is obvious. Due to the appearance of Lewis turning point, the labor force population transition from surplus to shortage. Obviously, the change of population age structure will have a certain impact on the economic structure of our country, while the industrial structure of our country is still not perfect. Therefore, the research of the change of population age structure has profound influence on China’s industrial structure and to explore the optimization and upgrade of the industrial structure has great practical value.In view of this, based on the theory of population and industrial structure,this paper firstly analyzed the general situation and the effecting factors of the population age structure, which has been measured from different aspects. Then based on the bivariate and granger method, the correlation and causality analysis were conducted from the two perspectives of demand side and the supply side, and the change of the age structure’s influence on industrial structure was explored and the theory model also was put forward. Finally, by using the BDS and MS model to research the sample data of 1982-2015, this paper provide a quantitative reference for the relevant departments to formulate the policy of industrial structure to meet population situation. The results are as follows:(1)As statistical measurement results shown: ①In the discrete state, the change of the population age structure in the whole sample interval shows the N trend in favor of the right.②The industry output structure is in accord with the employment structure, but they constitute a deviation from the norm incomparison with the standard structure. ③ Based on the value of entropy changes of industrial structure varying from 0.4029 to 0.4691, the changes in China’s industrial structure are in weak robustness. ④ The value of the Ms(max=2.8511,min=0.2562) indicates that the changes in China’s industrial structure are in intense fluctuations. ⑤In the process of the Bi-variate method,there is a significant correlation and strong dependence between population age structure and industrial structure.(2) As the case study of the demand side effect shown: ①The theoretical framework is population age structure → consumption structure → product structure → industrial structure.②There is a significant nonlinear co-integration relationship between population age structure and industrial structure. ③The impacts of the age structure of the population make on China’s industrial structure are different in two states, and exhibit the trend from weak to strong.④The year of 2000 is a turning point in China’s population structure changes,meaning that the effect has a character of structure breaks. And the relationship between them varies from the independence to dependence increasing trend. ⑤The age structure of the population has a significant bound effect on the first and second industries. However, it has obvious promoting effects on third industry.(3) As the case study of the supply side effect shown: ①The theoretical framework is population age structure → labor and capital supply → industrial structure. ②There is a significant nonlinear co-integration relationship between population age structure and industrial structure. ③The maximum likelihood and criterion of MS-VAR model is superior to traditional linear model, and changes in the age structure of the population to the industrial structure exists state transfer characteristic. ④The year of 2000 and 2006 are turning points,which means that the effect of population age structure on industrial structure is dynamic. ⑤ The quantity and quality of the labor population affect the industrial structure from the same direction, the capital supply causes restraint to industrial structure in different degrees, especially cause the most insensitive effect on the first industry.