The Impact Of Climate Change On Population Mortality

With the increasingly of significance of global climate change, the impact of climate change on human health have also entered the study field of scholars and view of the public. China located in the north temperate zone, the health of the residents affected by global climate change significantly. However, research in this field has not sufficient, and the impact of different diseases by different climate is different.To estimate the lagged effects of temperature on respiratory and circulatory system diseases deaths in five districts——Linhe district, Huimin district, Sunite Youqi, Balin Youqi and Kailu County, from Inner Mongolia of China.A data fitting was built between the temperature, ralitive humidity and deaths of respiratory and circulatory system diseases, based on the temperature information provided by Inner Mongolia Meteorological Department and the deaths data provided by Inner Mongolia Center of Disease Prevention and Control during year2008-2012, adopting the time-serious analysis method and by distributed lag non-linear modle, so as to analyze the immediate factors. This paper established a distributed lag non-linear model fitting the exposure-response relationship between daily deaths and regional temperature, using respiratory, circulatory disease deaths per day as the dependent variable, controlling short-term and long-term trends in death by spline fluctuations, in order to analysis the cumulative effect and lagged effects of different temperatures on the respiratory, circulatory system disease deaths and so on.The study found that the lag effect and hot/cold effect of risks in different region of similar diseases, there is no apparent consistency, moreover, there is no best temperature indicators. Therefore, a comparison between the different regions of view, make a unified warning model is very difficult. The more accurate assessment of climate change effect on different regions, the risk of various diseases and economic losses, and more effective prevention of impairment will be important directions of development in this area. End of this article is policy recommendations, targeted to take preventive measures to reduce the temperature of residents’deaths.