| BackgroundSystem Dynamics Model (SDM) has a broad application in macro social-economicresearch.The application evidence proves that System Dynamics has a unique advantagein solving complex nonlinear problems. The development of health system depends onlots of factors,such as economic,society,population,and environment.ect. Furthermore,the relationship between them is extremely complex.Therefore,it is necessary to explorethe application of SDM and enrich the projection tools in National Health Expenditureanalysis.ObjectivesTo explore the system dynamics model to predict the total health expenses inLiaoning province,the application of health financing policy Suggestions are putforward.Specific points and the target is as follows:(1)Describe the changing trends and characteristics of the total health expenses inLiaoning province.(2)The analysis and study the influence factors of the total health expenses.(3)Explore the application of system dynamics model to predict the total healthexpenses,the stability of the total health expenses forecast model is established toforecast the development trend of the total health expenses in Liaoning provinceresearch,and discusses its prediction methodology.(4)Combining with the existing health total cost data and prediction results of theanalysis,put forward the related to health financing policy recommendations andresearch methodology.MethodsThe long-term trend in TEH of Liaoning province since1990was analyzed by descriptive statistics in this research,and influencing factors of TEH were concluded onthe basis of literature review.Suitable key variables for SDM construction were selectedusing system analysis method.Based on system dynamics theory,the simulation modelof TEH was constructed with the software of Vensim PLE5.8.ResultsThis study by applying the theory of system dynamics for the first time introducedin Liaoning province of the total health expenses forecast field,established the systemdynamics simulation model of total health expenditure,in Liaoning province in2007,2008and2009,the data show in2008,2009and2010,the development trend of thetotal health expenses in Liaoning province.Prediction results for the inspection and thereport value of relative average error is0.303%,per capita health and calculated the totalcost of the history report comparing values differ4.77yuan on average,just0.309%.Andthe total health expenses of GDP on average only0.0083%difference,very close tohistoric report value,realistic society in Liaoning the development trend of the totalhealth expenses,description of model prediction accuracy is higher.Based on the2010years of history data,considering the12th five-year plan period inLiaoning province of the expected indicators,set system dynamics simulation model oftotal health expenses of the initial value,for the next five years to predict the developmenttrend of the total health expenditure,prediction results showed that the total healthexpenses in Liaoning province during the "twelfth five-year" presents the fast growth thetendency,the growth of13.3%,13.5%,13.8%and13.5%respectively,the total healthexpenses consumption elasticity coefficient between1.02and1.08.Account the totalhealth expenses in Liaoning province and the growth rate of GDP growth rate were littlechanged,and gradually increase,which means the growth of total health expensessynchronization with national economic development.Per capita total health expenses by10.2%to10.2%growth.Government health expenditure budget of TEH proportion showsthe tendency of increase year by year,social health expenditure proportion of TEH also isin constant change,until more than40%,and personal health spending cash accounts forTEH proportion decreases.This trend also happens to conform to the12th five-year planin Liaoning province of the total health expenses reasonable structure of the standard of"343" development trend of the structural framework.And the total health expenditure as ashare of GDP has increased year by year. |
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