Study On Guangxi's Total Expenditure Of Health Structure Influencing Factors And Prediction In From 2005 To 2015

Objective: To analyze the change of the total health expenditure of Guangxi since the implementation of the new medical reform policy in Guangxi,this paper summed up the factors affecting the total health cost of Guangxi,forecasted the development of the total actual health expenditure per capita in Guangxi in the coming period.In particular,the new health care policy before and after the implementation of the two periods of time in Guangxi,the funding situation and structural changes and similar areas of domestic comparison,this paper analyzed the development of health economy in Guangxi,which objectively treated the connotation of Guangxi medical reform and the actual effect of Guangxi medical reform.It has provided some reference for the difference between the total health expenses and some parts of the country since the medical reform in Guangxi.Methods: The main indicators of health total cost were have selected through literature review and expert consultation.The relative data and relevant policy documents of total health cost were collected by comparison method.Before and after the new medical reform,we use average development speed and absolute growth and the elasticity coefficient of health consumption to compare and to analyze the financing development of the total health cost of Guangxi.And we analyzed the development of the financing structure of Guangxi health total cost by the structure change degree and structure contribution rate and analyzed the balance of the total health cost of Guangxi and analyzed of hospital and drug health total cost development to contrast.With the review of literature system and expert consultation,the influence factors affecting the development of health total cost in Guangxi have were analyzed,and the development of total health expenditure in Guangxi is forecasted by using spatial state model.Results:(1)Grey correlation Analysis: The correlation degree was from large to small,from 2005 to 2010,the grey correlation degree of total health expenditure source law and agency law in Guangxi were personal cash health expenditure,government health expenditure,social health expenditure from 2010 to 2015 The grey correlation degree was government health expenditure,personal cash health expenditure,social health expenditure.(2)Structural changes: from 2005 to 2010,the structural changes of the total health expenditure,the total social health expenditure and the total personal cash health expenditure of the Guangxi government were 333.31%,and the contribution rate of the structure were in turn: 46.02% 34.35% 19.63% from 2010 to 2015.The structural changes of total health expenditure,total social health expenditure and total personal cash health expenditure of Guangxi government were 494.06,and the contribution rate of structure were respectively 39.19% and 21.22%.From 2005 to 2010,the structural change of the total health expenditure in Guangxi were 543.01,which were composed of hospitals,county hospitals,centers of community health service,health centers,other hospitals,outpatient clinics,drug retail institutions,public health institutions,and health services.The contribution rate of the health administration and medical insurance institutions were in order of: 16.24% and 9.49%,0.38%,0.54% and 0.12%,0.58% and 8.47%,8.10%,2.57%,during 2010-2015.The degree of structural change of the total health expenditure in Guangxi were 1193.15,and the contribution rate of the structure were corresponding to 1.20% in turn as follows: 19.79% and 8.49%,0.42% and 4.73%,-0.04% and 3.59%,17.37%,7.05 % and 1.20%.Respectively,from 2005 to 2010,the structural change degree of outpatient drug,inpatient drug and retail drug cost in Guangxi were 124.56,and the contribution rate of structure change were in turn: 1.22.933%,40.16% and 36.91% from 2010 to 2015.The structural change degree of Guangxi drug cost was 613.91%,and the structural change rate were corresponding to 33.77%.(3)Forecast of total health cost: by 2020,the actual total health cost per capita in Guangxi will be 1134.67 yuan,and by 2025,the total per capita actual health expenditure in Guangxi will be 1433.08 yuan.Conclusion:(1)Since the new medical reform,Guangxi's total health expenditure has been developing rapidly,and the average rate of development has decreased before the new medical reform.(2)Hospital and medicine in Guangxi Health cause of the most important part,pay special attention to hospital costs and drug costs are the main factors of health economic operation in Guangxi.(3)The total financing of health in Guangxi is relatively insufficient,the financing structure is not optimized,and the effect of "new medical reform" needs to be deepened.(4)The new medical reform should pay close attention to the change of the total health cost and make full use of the information and signal of the change of the total health cost to serve the medical reform.