Prediction Of Health Expenditure In Gansu Province Based On Combined Model

Objective Descriptive analysis of the total health expenditure and financing structure in Gansu Province.Based on the historical data of total health expenditure in Gansu Province and other relevant data,forecast the total health expenditure of Gansu Province in 2018-2025.Provide data support for the Gansu provincial government and health management departments in the future health reform strategy layout and planning,and provide suggestions for effectively reducing the disease burden of the government and the people.Method The research data mainly comes from the basic data and results of Gansu Provincial Health and Family Planning Commission on the total health expenditure of Gansu Province,statistics of relevant departments of Gansu Provincial Statistics Bureau and China National Health Accounts Report.Describe and analyze the health financing structure of Gansu Province in combination with relevant policies and regulations.Based on the historical data related to total health expenditure in Gansu Province,a multivariate linear regression model and an ARIMA model were established,and a combined model was constructed to predict the total health expenditure in Gansu Province from 2018 to 2025.Result According to the current year's price,the total health expenditure in Gansu Province in 1995 and 2017 was 2.511 billion yuan and 81.27 billion yuan respectively.The total per capita health expenditure increased from 106.49 yuan in 1995 to 30959.78 yuan in 2017.In 2017,the total health expenditure in Gansu Province accounted for 10.59% of GDP.According to the results predicted by the combined model,the total health expenditure in 2018-2025 will reach: 94.406 billion yuan,107.983 billion yuan,122.834 billion yuan,141.244 billion yuan,160.575 billion yuan,182.55 billion yuan,205.964 billion yuan,233.585 billion yuan.The total health expenditure as a percentage of GDP will reach 11.32%,12.03%,12.71%,13.56%,14.46%,15.26%,16.30%,and 17.36%,respectively.Conclusion Gansu Province should optimize the health financing structure and improve the efficiency of health funds in combination with the actual situation of the province.The Gansu provincial government and the health administrative department must clarify departmental responsibilities,strengthen the assessment of the effectiveness of control costs,and exert the government's health investment in the governance of medical institutions.Gansu Province needs to work hard to expand social health financing channels.Gansu provincial government and health administrative department should implement the national new medical reform policy and accelerate the grading diagnosis and treatment.Gansu Province should accelerate the development of healthy old-age services and actively respond to the aging of the population.The research needs to be further improved.Due to the shortage of data and the limitations of the model,the predicted value may have errors,and the error value will gradually increase as the forecast period increases.Figure 6,Table 18,Reference 59.