Determinants Analyze And Forecast Study Of China Total Expenditure On Health

Objective:This study aims to find variation and determinants of China Total Expenditure on Health(CTEH)based on historical data,and estimate the development trends of CTEH in next five years,as well as to provide a theoretical basis to health economic policy making and effective using of resources.Methods:Describe the characteristic of CTEH and choose the main factors that may affect CTEH remarkably by Multiple Linear Regression Model and Principal Component Analysis(PCA)and the Theory of Demand and Supply as well.Estimate the development trends of the per-capita health expenditure and CTEH share of GDP for the period 2014?2018 by ARIMA model.Statistics software such as Excel2013,SPSS21.0 and EViews6.0 are used for data analyzing.Results:1.The result has showed three characteristics of CTEH clearly:first,total expenditure on health is continued to grow;second,the gap of health expenditure between urban and rural residents is also increasing;the last,the out-of-pocket health expenditure is the great proportion of financing source.2.11 indicators that may be the determinants of total expenditure on health has been selected based on the Theory of Demand and Supply,the 11 indicators are respectively:proportion of population aged over 65,average life expectancy,proportion of education spending percent of GDP,per-capita GDP,disposable income of households per-capita average,Engel's coefficient,proportion of urban population,proportion of social health insurance in GDP,proportion of government expenditure,number of doctors per thousand population and infant mortality rate.Regression analysis showed that socioeconomic level(mean by indicator of per-capita GDP and disposable income of households per-capita average),health insurance(mean by the indicator of proportion of social health insurance in GDP),the supply of health service(mean by the indicator of number of doctors per thousand population)and aging of population(mean by the indicator of proportion of population aged over 65)are key elements that influence on the CTEH.3.Forecast the trend of CTEH:the ARIMA model is available and fit well for estimating the trend of CTEH which will keep growing in the next few years.The predicted value of per-capita health expenditure is 2831.73 Yuan,the proportion of TEH in GDP is 5.78%in 2015 at comparable prices calculation.And the predicted value of per-capita health expenditure is 3825.10 Yuan,the proportion of TEH in GDP is 6.40%in 2018 at comparable prices calculation.According to the results,the objectives raised by "Healthy China 2020"(what announced total expenditure on health share of GDP is 6.5%?7%),will be achieved smoothly by the year 2020.But heath expenditure increasing would bring high pressure on health financing systems,therefore,it will be the critical point to making good and effective policy that can help the health financing system to bear the pressure and challenge.