Dynamics And Prediction Of Landscape In Land Utilization Of Xining City

This paper using spatial analysis method, mathematical model to study thelandscape pattern of land use in terms of temporal and spatial dynamic changes Basedon Remote Sensing and Geographical Information Systems. Taking Xining City for anexample to build landscape pattern forecast model using CA-Markov with supporttheory such as LUCC, land resource optimal allocation and landscape ecology.According to the forecast result, some improvement suggestions for Xining Cityfuture land use are put forward to provide reference for land intensive utilization andsustainable development. Results suggest as follows:(1) Change of Land use typesDuring1995and2013, grassland and construction land appear increasedtendency, but arable land, woodland and unused land has been continuously decreased.Relatively speaking, water bodies presents relatively stable and have a very smallinfluence to general land use area change contrary to arable land. Namely, the usechange of arable land is obvious, and a majority of which have change intoconstruction land, the transformation into woodland and grassland is the minority. Themajority transformation of unused land is into grassland, a small amount of which isrepresented by construction land and arable land.(2) Change of landscape patternThrough the analysis of Xining city landscape pattern change from1995to2013,it indicates that arable land, grassland woodland and unused land are the dominateland type. On the whole, with the rapidly process of forest reservation and arableconsolidation project, the disturbance of land use in Xining City has been improved.And a great amount of unused land has been transformed into grassland, whichaccount for enhancement of landscape and patch physical connectivity. The tendencyof landscape type is diversification and equalization, and to a certain extent, landscapeanti-jamming capability and ecosystem stability have been improved.(3)Analysis of the simulation results of Xining City in2019 The simulation results of Xining City in2019show that arable land has beencontinuously decreased from2019to2013, with a loss of2113.53hm2, and theincrement of grassland is4272.38hm2, above of which are the major changes inlandscape structure. In addition, the forest and water bodies appear stable with a littledecrement. The construction land area increased3896.89hm2, which is the largest landtype in simulation period. The unused land decreased5065.44hm2.Finally, this paper proposes a methodology for future sustainable land use basedon the analysis results of more than20years land use change and model forecasting ofXining City. It is necessary to strictly control decrement of arable land, implementingland reclamation and consolidation. And then improving the quality of arable land andbasic farmland, economical and intensive utilizing construction land, strengthenecological environment protect and guaranteeing environment safety.