Study And Simulation Of Landscape Pattern Change Of Land Use In Chang’an District Based On CA-Markov Model

In recent years, Xi’an City, Chang’an District’s economy has made rapid development, followed by the decrease of cultivated land area, the increase of the area of land construction, the destruction of the ecological environment, the contradiction between land use, the land use landscape pattern research is particularly important, and the simulation of land use and landscape pattern change can provide powerful the basis for further research on land use and landscape pattern change process.This paper takes Chang’an District as the research object, in the area of 2004 and 2014 remote sensing images as the data source, using the data of two periods of the division of the landscape type of land use of Erdas Imagine software, and then through the ArcGIS software on the land use situation analysis of the land use landscape type structure variation, the change of land use and land use transfer matrix dynamic degree index of land use change; then calculate the landscape pattern index by using the Fragstats software, change law of Chang’an District during the study of the landscape pattern index, then discusses the relationship of the study area land use landscape pattern evolution and natural, social and economic factors between. On this basis, CA-Markov model is constructed under the support of IDRISI software, simulation and prediction of land use and landscape pattern of Chang’an District in 2024, according to the simulation results discussed finally put forward to future land use development suggestions. The main conclusion as following:(1) From 2004 to 2014, the change of land use structure in Chang’an District is very significant. During this period, the rapid growth of construction land, cultivated land and woodland decreased in at a faster speed. The main source of construction land change is farmland, followed by woodland. From the perspective of cultivated land, woodland to farmland conversion is also more obvious, and the dynamic changes of various types of land are very strong.(2) 2004 to 2014 years, In Chang’an District the structure of landscape pattern has changed. With the urbanization reached a high level, the landscape fragmentation in the lower space complexity in the structure of the plaque decreased, the dominance of various types of plaque tends to be uniform. The degree of landscape fragmentation of cultivated land in the process of urbanization intensifies, and other types of landscape fragmentation decreased. For the construction of patch shape and woodland will tend to rule, and cultivated land form to complex changes in the direction of.(3) That analysis of the factors influencing the changes of landscape patterns, factors of slope, distance of transportation distance and distance of the administrative center of the far larger influence on the landscape pattern of land use. This paper makes a qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis of these factors, to provide for the future of Chang’an District transformation rules to simulate land use landscape pattern.(4) To construct the CA-Markov model, and then simulate the landscape pattern of land use in Chang’an District in 2014 by using the model, to evaluate the accuracy of the simulation results, the Kappa coefficient is 0.8050, indicates that the simulation effect is good; after the accuracy test, and then simulated the landscape pattern of land use in Chang’an District in 2024. The simulation results show that, the landscape pattern of land use in 2014 to 2024 in Chang’an District will maintain overall trend basically in 2004 to 2014, the area of cultivated land and forest land area continued to decrease, and construction land area increased.(5) According to the Chang’an District 2024 simulation results of land use landscape pattern, this paper puts forward a series of land use in Chang’an District to promote the healthy development of the proposal.