Landscape Pattern Differentiation Based On CA-Markov Model

Study on dynamic change of land use is an important field in the study of today’s global environmental change. With the continuous development of remote sensing technology and the constant perfection of spatial analysis function of GIS, the research on land use change transfer the quantitative description on quantity and structure change of land use to Spatio-temproal changes of land use pattern studies. During the rapid urbanization process, land use changes drastically and frequently in urban fringe area. Therefore, the study on the law and influence mechanism of land use change and constructing simulation model of landscape pattern will have significant influence on formulating land use regulation policies, on the scientific establishment of city planning, on the constant perfection of land use planning, on the promotion of regional environmental construction, on the land use structure optimization and adjustment of the layout, on the rational utilization of land resource.This paper take the Sanshan District of Wuhu as the research area and three stages of present land use statuses of Sanshan District at2000,2005,2010as the data sources, by using the landscape software (FRAGSTATS3.3), this paper gets the landscape pattern index, analyzes the Sanshan District landscape pattern law.Transformed matrix of landscape pattern is obtained with MARKOV module in Idrisi, suitability images of landscape pattern obtained with MCE module. Finally, under supports of Idrisi, establishes CA-Markov model to simulate and analyze the landscape pattern of Sanshan District in2015.This paper is divided into six chapters:Chapterl:simply explains the background and meaning of this paper, summarizes the research progresses on land use change and its model construction from local and foreign studies, and then on the basis, elaborates the research content and technique route of the paper.Chapter2:based on the research content of this paper, introduces the theories of cellular automaton and Markov, and elaborates the CA-Markov model.Chapter3:introduces the general situation of Sanshan District society, economy and land use, elaborates the data sources and the classification method of present land use statuses, after reclassification forms the basic statuses which the research is required.Chapter4:The present landscape pattern of land use is analyzed by using the landscape pattern index in Sanshan District, by using the Markov model, land use transfer matrix of Sanshan District is got during2000-2005and2005-2010, the changes of landscape types in different times is analyzed.Chapter5:analyzes the influential factors of landscape types transformation, suitability images of landscape pattern is obtained with MCE module in Idrisi, uses the CA-Markov model to simulate the changes of landscape pattern in2010, then compare to the reality, through the precision testing of simulation, predicts the landscape pattern of Sanshan District in2015.Chapter6:summarizes the main conclusions of the research and discusses the existing deficiencies.