Evaluation Of Direct Losses And Spatial Ripple Effects Manufacturing Industry In Shanghai Under Extreme Storm Flood Scenario

With global warming and rising sea levels,the frequency and intensity of climate events such as extreme weather and related disasters have shown an upward trend,and the socio-economic losses and impacts caused by disasters will also be further expanded.Especially in today's industrial globalization and economic globalization,industrial activities have sectoral and regional relevance.The economic loss of a single regional sector can spread the loss to the entire industrial economic system through the correlation between industries,and reduce the loss from the local area.The disaster-affected area spreads to a wider geographical space,causing systemic risks.The loss or production suspension of some key departments often paralyzes the industrial chain,which makes local disasters have a significant impact on the country and the world economy.Shanghai is located in the Yangtze River Delta on the east coast of China and is often threatened by strong winds and floods brought by storm surges.Among them,the typhoon not only brought severe rains and floods to Shanghai and its surrounding areas but also caused major economic and property losses and human disasters.As the center city and transportation hub of the manufacturing industry in the Yangtze River Delta,Shanghai's manufacturing industry has accumulated a large number of production factors and has spatial spillover effects brought about by industrial linkages.Therefore,a quantitative assessment of the disaster economic loss of Shanghai's manufacturing industry under extreme storm and flood scenarios is useful for identifying key industrial nodes,revealing how flood disasters spread to the external space through the industrial network,and predicting the impact and loss of Shanghai's manufacturing industry on the national industrial network.The spatial spillover effect is of great significance.This paper uses extreme storm floods as scenarios,comprehensively using the vulnerability curve,Leontief production function,and the multi-regional input-output model(MRIO)to construct physical damage and business interruption losses in Shanghai's manufacturing sector.An integrated assessment method that integrates Ripple loss and regional industry ripple loss,simulating the process of disaster loss spreading from local individual enterprises to other industrial sectors and regions across the country,and comprehensively assessing the economic loss caused by the disaster and its spatial impact.Research indicatesUnder the compound extreme storm flood scenario with a return period of once in200 years,once in 500 years,once in 1000,and once in 5000 years,the physical losses of Shanghai's manufacturing industry include asset losses of 22.262 billion yuan,45.671 billion yuan,76.251 billion yuan,and 152.822 billion yuan.The losses are the same as the exposure in the corresponding scenarios,mainly concentrated in Pudong and Baoshan in the northeast,Songjiang,and Qingpu in the southwest,and Jinshan,Fengxian,and Pudong on the north bank of Hangzhou Bay.Manufacturing companies in these areas are densely distributed,with high asset density,and high-vulnerability industries account for a large proportion.The disaster-affected industries are mainly petrochemicals,chemical raw materials and products,ferrous metal smelting and processing,computers and communications,and other electronic equipment manufacturing.These industries are the six key development industries in Shanghai,accounting for 68.5% of the total industrial output value.For these high-exposure and high-asset industries,we must be aware of risks and disaster prevention and mitigation.Due to asset damage and lack of labor,business interruption losses in the manufacturing industry were 3.830 billion yuan,13.811 billion yuan,29.944 billion yuan,and 215.276 billion yuan,and further induced ripple loss among industries across the country.They are 7.633 billion yuan,30.295 billion yuan,66.110 billion yuan,and459.866 billion yuan,showing a significant loss multiplier effect.The indirectly affected areas have formed a spatial pattern with the Yangtze River Delta(Jiangsu,Zhejiang)-inland energy supply provinces(Xinjiang,Shaanxi,Heilongjiang)-coastal economically developed provinces(Guangdong,Shandong)as the hot spots.The most affected sector in the national industrial system is the manufacturing sector,which accounts for about 75% of the total affected losses.In the non-manufacturing sector,except for the oil and natural gas sector,which rose from2.24% to 9.51%,the proportion of ripple losses in other industrial sectors has changed slightly.The multi-process and multi-scale integrated evaluation method constructed in this paper can effectively evaluate the direct losses caused by different storm and flood scenarios on Shanghai's local manufacturing enterprises and the inter-regional ripple effects induced by them and can be used to reasonably implement flood risk prevention at key industrial nodes in local areas.And the industrial layout has important reference significance.