Study On The Precise Supplying Of Cigarette Products Of Yanan Tobacco Company

The prefecture-level tobacco commerce enterprise serves as a connecting link between the preceding and the following of the cigarette supply chain. Its upstream is cigarette industrial enterprises. Its downstream links are tens of thousands of retail shops. Through these retail shops, the prefecture-level tobacco commerce enterprise connects to the extensive consumer market. The ability of governing the region market of the prefecture-level tobacco commerce enterprise is counting for much to realize the development goal of tobacco industry. The ability is embodied in demand forecasting and precise supplying of cigarette products.Aiming at the main problems of accurate forecasting of the market demands and precise supplying of the cigarette products, the case of Yanan Tobacco Company has been studied by using the methods of literature analysis, market survey, comparison and induction etc. The four key issues of market forecasting, procurement, supplying and feedback-based optimization have been thorough analysized in the thesis. The analysis model basing on the characteristics of consumers classification, the total market demand prediction model basing on the historical sales data, the cigarette products sales composition forecasting model basing on the brand cultivation policy of State Tobacco Monopoly Bureau and historical sales data, have been built via market survey in Yanan region.The multivariate regression model with the variables of retail shops classification and market monitoring information has been set up to overcome the shortcomings of time series models. The cigarette supplying and market regulating synthesized model has been set up by combining the regression model with the factors of price elasticity and substitution of brand of cigarette commodity. By improving the supply chain cooperation, monthly sales forecasting, inventory controlling, customer subclassifying and precise supplying basing on the above models, the ability of governing the region market of Yanan has been increased signally. The real time information of retailing market has been obtained by setting data acquisition stations at typical customers to increase the accuracy. Through the serials of exploration and practice, the market forecasting, procurement, supplying and feedback-based optimization integrated management system of precise supplying and closed-loop regulating has been established at Yanan Tobacco Company.