Construction And Application Of Forecasting Model Of Cigarette Demand In Municipal Bureau

"Organization to supply according to customer demand." is a focus of the current tobacco industry. Achieve "organization to supply according to customer orders",the key is to ask managers through analysis, research area retail customer sales data. Meanwhile, master specifications of each brand of cigarette consumer demand, the market forecast of the area size of each brand of cigarettes overall consumption trends, within a period of time in order to determine the area of the supply market demand. Predict the degree of matching is directly related to the level of" Organization to supply according to customer demand " process. Therefore, the "organization to supply according to customer orders," the most basic task is to grasp the real needs of consumers, and strive to improve demand forecasting goodness of fit. Predict accurately determine whether the organization’s ability to meet the market supply of consumer demand, but also to some extent determines the company’s operating profit also reflects the viability of the tobacco business enterprises. Therefore, the tobacco companies do demand forecasting work is to achieve "according to customer orders organizational sources," the top priority. How effective and scientific analysis of data, improve the ability to forecast demand has become the urgent need to resolve the issue.Xishuangbanna Tobacco Company in the example for this article. We analyze the raw data, such as sales data, inventory measurement data to build predictive models, detailed model building step, and the cigarette demand forecast data quickly applied to the empirical study of cigarette put in the work.This article uses mathematical statistics and market survey:Average data culling(Including data for hypothesis testing)、Amplification factor culling、market research data regression、moving average、time series prediction、weight analysis.