| B Company in Jiangsu province, the author of this paper demand forecasting problem of aquatic products research, first of all, through the analysis of the data of B Company aquatic products that B Company aquatic products at present there are three main problems: inaccurate demand forecast, information not free, the influence of bullwhip effect. From these three points, with B Company Yuncheng lake hairy crabs successful sales model as an example, study the way of the whole sales, may affect the sales of the main factors are analyzed, and through the linear regression model, found the main factors that affect sales is its price, the reason is that the Company Yuncheng lake hairy crabs positioning high-end, high profit, and by public recognition, and limited by region, its products are unique, product sales have been in the condition of demand is less than the supply, now sales demand through the price adjustment can reach the goal. In dealing with poor information and on the influence of bullwhip effect, B Company Yuncheng lake hairy crabs main market important information to make use of the Internet technology transfer, collect, share, manage, and through the on-the-spot investigation for related products, the quality of information, combining both, determine the appropriate price. Based on Company B Yuncheng lake hairy crab’s successful sales management mode, the demand for B Company aquatic products not predict problems improvement strategies are analyzed. Demand forecasting model is established first, crabs with B Company sales, for example, to determine the factors that affect its sales, and screened by regression analysis of the four major factors: the consumer price index, the average income in Jiangsu province town residents average price, average price of shrimp, crab. A quaternion linear regression using the excel software, it is concluded that the model equation, by a significant level of 0.1 T test and F test, shows that the model has a certain reliability. In dealing with poor information and on the influence of bullwhip effect, put forward to Internet technology to timely collect related influence factors in the prediction model, establish information database, on-the-spot investigation each big fish market price changes at the same time, to obtain more objective data; In addition, in order to avoid the influence of the bullwhip effect, put forward the method of vote, this method can better avoid theoretically predicted deviation caused by human factors. |
