Infant Products Demand Forecasting Research Of A Company

Under the impetus of the economic globalization, in the modern market, enterprise supply chain competition has become the key elements of competition between the enterprises. Product demand forecast as the starting point of enterprise supply chain, the effect is very important. Accurate demand forecasting can make whole system healthy, orderly orbit, the opposite is in a state of disorder. Demand forecasting accuracy directly determines supply of high and low cost, low precision through, the cost of production and supply enterprise greatly increased, and the linkage of the huge impact, make customer satisfaction greatly reduced. On the other hand, the enterprise production supply cost reduction, operating efficiency, a greater degree to meet customer demand, eventually improve the economic and social benefits of enterprises.Based on product demand plan of company A as the research object, carries on the deep research, combining the theory of demand planning, bullwhip effect theory of knowledge, by analyzing the influence factors of demand forecasting, set up A company’s product is suitable for demand forecasting method. In addition, in this paper, the monthly demand forecast adopted the combination of quantitative and qualitative methods. In this paper, the moving average method, the smoothing method of quantitative analysis method index, demand forecasting, and the average absolute deviation of the prediction error of the results of the evaluation, the final analysis Company A infant toiletries quantitative as moving average value method. Considering the abuses in quantitative models in qualitative analysis, this paper uses analogy prediction method, Delphi method and the subjective demand forecasting based on the prediction method and finally settled on subjective prediction method for qualitative analysis. In addition, the demand plan management process is optimized. Clarify the responsibilities of the relevant functional departments, the key indicators of demand planning should be brought into the sector performance management system, the safeguard demand of better implementation of the planning process.