Research On Cigarette Sales Predition Of Fushun Tobacco Company

In recent years,"Offering supply by clients' orders",which is a policy for cigarette market on the ground of China's entry to WTO,is being promoted broadly and thoroughly in tobacco industry.How to predict the market demand accurately so as to provide a real and efficient basis and reference for the industry is especially important during this period.Market demand reflects consuming capacity and choices.Accurately predicting the demands is not only conductive for decision-makers to hold the market trends and avoid stepping into the dark,but also positive for business operation.Previous prediction, particularly in municipal tobacco companies,is restricted by staff's personal abilities, working experience,professional quality,field vision as well as the simple method. Being aware of these shortcomings above and facing the new situation,operators in Fushun Tobacco Company put forward an upswing plan on modifying the demand prediction mechanism,which is mainly on prediction methods.Therefore,the work in this paper has a certain theoretical as well as practical significance.For these reasons,this papar firstly explains and analyses the existing prediction mechanism and points out the shortcomings,then lists and classify the influencing factors in cigarette sale into annual factors and monthly factors.Then,this paper offers a solution based on the actual situation,which is also the highlight of the whole reaseareh. Cigarette demand is divided into two parts:sale demand and structure(category) demand.In specific operational phase,this paper analyses the data of two different demands,using different prediction methods according to their features.After the standard process,this paper adds the influencing factor weight model to modify and amend the prediction results.Finally,it formats,respectively,applicable prediction models for sales demand and structure demand,so as to provide a well-established demand prediction method for Fushun Tobacco Company.