The Research Of Safety Evaluation Of China’s Ocean Shipping Industry Structure

The ocean shipping industry of China has occupied the first location since2007when China surpassed Japan and Korea in the three major indicators. Chineseshipping companies overcome difficulties of ship delivery and the shipwreck from theresult of the global financial crisis and the capacity of shipping building was retaininggrowing. But relative to developed countries in the marine shipping industry, therestill are a lot of problems, especially in the fact of the industrial structure of thedeep-seated problems. Anatomical analysis of the structural safety of the marineshipping industry can resolve the fundamental problems, and safeguard China’smaritime shipping industry safety and fundamentally.In order to study the structure of the security status of China’s ocean shippingindustry, this thesis decomposes the structure into relational structure, marketstructure, trade structure and investment structure. And respectively take the use of thedynamic I-O model, regression analysis, dependence on foreign and effective demandto analyze the sub-structures.Firstly, the article uses the dynamic I-O model to calculate the directconsumption coefficient and total consumption coefficient from the view of input, andcalculated the influence coefficient and the sensitivity coefficient from the perspectiveof the sector’s output. The coefficient of forward linkages and influence of the oceanshipping industry is large, which represents the strong drive of the upstream industryand the forward linkage is safe. But on the opposite, the he total consumptioncoefficient and sensitivity, and its coefficients are low, which is on the behalf of thenational economy’s poor drive of the marine shipping industry.This thesis makes the conclusion that the overall of China’s ocean shippingindustry is sage but its lack of product differentiation, by setting a model of market performance as explanatory variables, the four indicators of the market structure asthe explanatory variables, which showed that the product differentiation in theregression results is not significant, degree of market concentration is still needed toimprove, the enterprise scale and minimum efficient scale has large room to increase.The thesis calculates the range (from61.3%to82.1%) and (36.8%to51.2%), itis the proportion of the DWT of the export with a total deadweight of the ship and theannual shipbuilding capacity divided by annual export of shipping transaction valueaccounted for above-scale shipbuilding enterprises. The result is the the tradestructure of China’s ocean shipping industry is unsafe. There is problem of a seriousexternal dependence, expanding domestic demand can alleviate this problem. Andthere is need to improve China’s maritime shipbuilding industry R&D level and toincrease the content of scientific and technological.It takes the use of the theory of effective demand to analyze the supply anddemand conditions of the ocean shipping market based on completions and thevolume of new orders and ship the new boat price trends. In2009the completion ratehas been greater than the volume of new orders, although these two variables isessentially flat in2010, the margin of completed ships and the volume of new ordersin2011jumped sharply. There is excess production capacity significantly. In terms ofprice, the price trend of the world’s major traditional marine ship declines clearlywhich reflects the supply exceeds demand of traditional ship. While China is thelargest manufacturer of the world’s traditional ship, which behaves that China’s oceanshipping industry has the problem of overcapacity and the investment structure isunsafe. Ultimately it has the result that the overall state of insecurity of China’s oceanshipping industry structure is unsafe.China should learn from the developed countries of shipping industry in thepreservation of the structural safety of the marine shipping industry. Europe maintainsthe market structure of the ocean shipping industry through technological innovation,the Japanese shipbuilding industry maintains the correlation structure of the oceanshipping industry and the South Korean government guides the ocean shippingindustry support mechanisms. The thesis provided suggestions for the development of China’s ocean shipping industry, such as conscientious implement of the newinternational norms and standards to conform to the international market demand,exchange rate hedging in order to reduce exchange rate risk, to increase the shipproducts supporting the R&D investment of the high-tech ships and special ships, inorder to actively promote merger and reorganization of the development ofinternational trade to increase domestic demand for ships.